原油成品油早报-20251105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil prices maintained a volatile trend. On Friday, US media reported that the US was about to launch a military attack on Venezuela, causing oil prices to rise. On Sunday, OPEC+ members confirmed a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December. Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories slightly increased, while floating storage inventories slightly decreased. Affected by a significant decline in net crude oil imports, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels, and gasoline and diesel inventories also decreased. Refining profits in Europe and the US rebounded this week. Although short - term geopolitical risks have resurfaced, the pressure on crude oil supply release is relatively high. With the commissioning of Brazil's P78, further production increases by OPEC, and the US maintaining a high total production, crude oil will maintain a weak pattern [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Changes - From October 29 to November 4, 2025, WTI crude oil prices decreased by $0.49, BRENT decreased by $0.75, and DUBAI decreased by $0.76. Among refined products, NYMEX RBOB increased by $0.67, and NYMEX HO increased by $3.93. For other related products, SC decreased by 4.40 yuan, and Japanese naphtha CFR decreased by $2.57 [3][12] b. Daily News - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending October 31 was 6.521 million barrels, with the previous value being - 4.02 million barrels. BP's CEO stated that oil demand remains strong, with aviation and petrochemical products driving a 1% increase in oil demand. TotalEnergies' CEO believes that global renewable energy will double by 2040, and there is no investment shortage in the oil market. The US Energy Department's deputy minister said that energy demand is rising rapidly, and the top priority is to replenish the strategic petroleum reserve. Brazil's National Petroleum Agency reported that the country's oil production in September was 3.915 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% [3][4] c. Inventory - According to the EIA report for the week ending October 24, US crude oil exports increased by 158,000 barrels per day to 4.361 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 15,000 barrels to 13.644 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 416 million barrels, a decrease of 1.62%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.753 million barrels per day, a 0.91% decrease compared to the same period last year; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 533,000 barrels to 409.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.13%; and crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.051 million barrels per day, a decrease of 867,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. US gasoline inventories decreased by 5.941 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by 3.362 million barrels. From October 23 - 30, the operating rate of domestic main refineries decreased, while that of local refineries slightly increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated, with local refinery gasoline inventories increasing and diesel inventories decreasing. The profits of both main and local refineries decreased [4][5] d. Weekly View - This week, crude oil prices were volatile. On Friday, news of a potential US military attack on Venezuela drove up oil prices. On Sunday, OPEC+ confirmed a production increase in December. According to data, Russia's average daily seaborne oil product exports in the first 26 days of October were 1.89 million barrels, and the average daily seaborne crude oil exports in October were 5.198 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 460,000 barrels and a year - on - year increase of 321,000 barrels. Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories slightly increased, while floating storage inventories slightly decreased. Affected by a significant decline in net crude oil imports, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Gasoline and diesel inventories also decreased, and refining profits in Europe and the US rebounded. Despite short - term geopolitical risks, the pressure on crude oil supply release is high, and crude oil will maintain a weak pattern [5]