大越期货沪铜早报-20251105

Report Core View - The supply side of copper is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. China's manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49.0%. The inventory is rising, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: The supply side is disturbed, and China's manufacturing production activity slowed down in October with the PMI at 49.0%, considered neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 86,610 with a basis of 870, showing a premium over futures, considered bullish [2]. - Inventory: On November 4, copper inventory increased by 300 to 133,900 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,348 tons to 116,140 tons last week, considered neutral [2]. - Disk: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward, considered neutral [2]. - Main Position: The main net position is long and the long position is increasing, considered bullish [2]. - Expectation: With inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances, such as the event at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine, the copper price will fluctuate at a high level [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Influencing Factors: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation are mentioned, but specific impacts of "利多" (bullish) and "利空" (bearish) are not detailed [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance. China's annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, consumption, and balance data from 2018 - 2024 [19][21]. Other Information - The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level, and the processing fee has declined [13][15].