沪锌期货早报-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that the short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc ZN2512 is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias. The fundamentals show a supply shortage of zinc plates globally, and the market has mixed signals from different indicators. The short - term trading may experience oscillating consolidation due to the behavior of both long and short positions in the previous trading day [2][18] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Fundamentals - In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons and consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, production was 9.0885 million tons and consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2] 3.2 Basis - The spot price was 22,630, and the basis was - 35, indicating a neutral situation [2] 3.3 Inventory - On November 4, LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 33,825 tons compared to the previous day, while SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 548 tons to 68,197 tons, which is a bearish factor [2] 3.4 Market Trends - On the previous trading day, Shanghai Zinc showed an oscillating upward trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending upward, which is a bullish factor [2] 3.5 Main Positions - The main players held a net short position, and the short positions increased, which is a bearish factor [2] 3.6 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (November 4) - For different delivery months, prices generally showed an upward trend. For example, for the 2512 contract, the previous settlement was 22,485, the opening price was 22,610, the closing price was 22,670, with an increase of 185 (first method) and 200 (second method). The trading volume was 150,552 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2,016 lots [3] 3.7 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (November 4) - The domestic spot price of zinc concentrate processing fees remained stable. The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,800 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 100 US dollars/dry ton. The price of 0 zinc ingots in different regions increased, such as in Shanghai, it was 22,580 - 22,680 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan/ton [4] 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (October 23 - November 3, 2025) - The total inventory in major domestic markets decreased from 163,500 tons on October 23 to 162,300 tons on November 3 [5] 3.9 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (November 4) - The total SHFE zinc warrants were 68,197 tons, an increase of 548 tons compared to the previous day. The main changes occurred in Guangdong and Tianjin [6] 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution (November 4) - The total LME zinc inventory was 33,825 tons. The注销仓单 ratio was 12.79% [7] 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary (November 4) - The prices of 50% grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities increased by 180 yuan/ton [9] 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes (November 4) - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters increased by 230 yuan/ton [12] 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - The planned production value in September was 506,800 tons, and the actual production was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% but a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The capacity utilization rate was 74.80%, and the planned production in October was 509,600 tons [14] 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (November 4) - The average processing fee for 50% grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions was around 2,800 - 3,200 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported processing fee for 48% grade was 100 US dollars/dry ton [16] 3.15 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (November 4) - For the zn2512 contract, the total trading volume was 227,322 lots, an increase of 15,012 lots compared to the previous day. The total long position was 79,420 lots, a decrease of 2,377 lots, and the total short position was 77,669 lots, a decrease of 1,936 lots [17] 3.16 Short - Term View - The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc oscillate upwards, with increased trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with long positions reducing more. The market may experience short - term oscillating consolidation. Technically, the price was above the moving average system, with strong support from the moving average. The short - term KDJ indicator declined but remained in the strong zone, and the trend indicator showed that the bullish power was increasing, and the bearish power was decreasing, with the bullish power having an expanding advantage [18]