白糖早报-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The long - term divergence between domestic and international sugar prices is unsustainable. There is significant pressure above 5500 for the main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar. The probability of short - sellers re - entering the market increases, suggesting a short - term volatile and bearish outlook [6][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Brazil's central - southern region produced 3601.6 million tons of sugar in the current season as of the first half of October, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply: Czarnikow raised the surplus forecast to 740 million tons; StoneX predicted a surplus of 277 million tons; ISO expected a supply gap of 23.1 million tons, significantly reduced from the previous forecast. In 2025, China's sugar - related data showed a complex situation: by the end of August 2025, the national cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons, while the import of syrup and premixed powder decreased by 13.51 million tons to 15.14 million tons. Overall, the fundamental situation is bearish [4][5]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5730, with a basis of 249 for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, a neutral situation [6]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, with the net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish [6]. - Likely Factors: Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include increased global sugar production, expected supply surplus in the new season, the foreign sugar price falling below 15 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [7]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Sugar Supply Forecasts: Different institutions have different predictions for the 25/26 global sugar supply. For example, the ISO in September 2025 predicted a supply gap narrowing to 20 million tons; StoneX in the same month expected a surplus of 277 million tons; Czarnikow in August 2025 forecast a surplus of 620 million tons (also mentioned 750 million tons elsewhere); Datagro in September 2025 predicted a surplus of 153 million tons; Covrig Analytics in August 2025 expected a surplus of 420 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus in July 2025 forecast a surplus of 40 million tons; Green Pool in July 2025 predicted a surplus of 115 million tons [36]. - China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, China's sugar - related data such as sugar - cane and beet planting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, and price ranges are relatively stable. The import volume is expected to be 500 million tons, and the consumption is expected to be 1590 million tons in 2025/26. The international sugar price is predicted to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [38]. - Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar was about 5086 yuan per ton. Due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices, the import profit was considerable [44]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.