铁矿石早报（2025-11-5）-20251105

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mills' hot metal production has started to decline, the arrival level this month has decreased, the overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories have decreased, and there will be policies to reduce crude steel production, while the trade war has eased, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis shows that the spot - converted prices of Rizhao Port PB powder and Brazilian Blend are at a premium to futures, being bullish [2]. - Port inventories are 15,272.93 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, being neutral [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is downward, being bearish [2]. - The net long position of the main iron ore contract has changed from short to long, being bullish [2]. - With the expected decrease in domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Factors Affecting Iron Ore Bullish factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories have decreased [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The downstream steel prices are rising and can bear high - priced raw materials [6]. Bearish factors - Future shipment volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. 3.2. Market Indicators - Iron ore port spot prices: Not elaborated on in the provided content - Iron ore basis: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to the futures price is 825 with a basis of 49; Rizhao Port Brazilian Blend spot converted to the futures price is 846 with a basis of 70, and the spot is at a premium to the futures [2]. - Iron ore import profit: Not elaborated on in the provided content - Iron ore shipment volume: Future shipment volumes will increase [6]. - Iron ore port and steel mill inventories: Port inventories are 15,272.93 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year [2]. - Iron ore arrival and clearance volumes: Not elaborated on in the provided content - Iron ore daily consumption: Not elaborated on in the provided content - Steel enterprise production situation: Steel mills' hot metal production has started to decline [2]. - Iron ore daily port transactions and steel mills' daily hot metal: Not elaborated on in the provided content