PTA、MEG早报-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The spot market negotiation atmosphere is relatively dull, mostly by traders. The polyester factories are less active. The spot basis fluctuates within a range, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side. Pay attention to device changes [5]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol has been continuously weakening, and the market negotiation is light. The supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium and long term, and the market sentiment is under pressure. It is expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will weaken in the near future. Pay attention to cost and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - PTA - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis loosened. The mainstream spot basis is at 01 - 75 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4525, and the 01 - contract basis is - 79, with the futures price at a premium. It is neutral [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.03 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period. It is bullish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. It is bullish [6]. - Main position: The net short position is decreasing. It is bearish [6]. - MEG - Fundamental: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol continued to weaken, and the market negotiation was light. The overall sentiment in the market was weak. The spot basis of this week weakened to a premium of about 70 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The overseas market price of ethylene glycol dropped significantly. It is neutral [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 3995, and the 01 - contract basis is 94, with the futures price at a discount. It is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 49.8 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons compared to the previous period. It is bearish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. It is bearish [7]. - Main position: The main net short position is increasing. It is bearish [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - Price: It includes the prices and price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester on November 4 and November 3, 2025 [13]. - Inventory Analysis: It shows the inventory data of PTA, ethylene glycol, PET chips, and polyester products from 2020 to 2025 [41]. - Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates: It shows the start - up rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [52][56]. - Profit: It shows the profit data of PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester products from 2020 to 2025 [60][62].