Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventories are at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1,189 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.08% from the previous value. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.29%. The main basis was -44 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.76% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1,145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia-soda process was -101.70 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co-production process was -203 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15]. Soda Ash Capacity and Production - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 86.89%. The weekly production was 757,600 tons, including 419,800 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][20]. Soda Ash Industry Capacity Changes - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant new capacity plans for soda ash. The new capacities in 2023, 2024, and the planned new capacity in 2025 were 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons, and 7.5 million tons respectively, with an actual planned production of 1 million tons in 2025 [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 99.78%. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 161,300 tons, with an operating rate of 76.35% and showing signs of stabilization [24][27]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 0.01% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five-year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided the annual supply and demand balance sheets of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].
大越期货纯碱早报-20251105
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-05 02:16