大越期货油脂早报-20251105

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable [2][3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil: MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current monthly export data of Malaysian palm oil shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and subsequent supply pressure eases as it enters the production - reduction season. The basis indicates that the spot price is higher than the futures price. As of September 22, the commercial inventory is 118 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average with a downward - sloping 20 - day moving average, and the short positions of the main contract are increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [2]. - Palm Oil: MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current monthly export data of Malaysian palm oil shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and subsequent supply will increase as it enters the production - increase season. The basis is neutral. As of September 22, the port inventory is 58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1 ton and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average with a downward - sloping 20 - day moving average, and the short positions of the main contract are increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3]. - Rapeseed Oil: MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current monthly export data of Malaysian palm oil shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and subsequent supply will increase as it enters the production - increase season. The basis indicates that the spot price is higher than the futures price. As of September 22, the commercial inventory is 56 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1 ton and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average with a downward - sloping 20 - day moving average, and the long positions of the main contract are decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多 Factors: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - 利空 Factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]. Supply - Related - Supply aspects include soybean oil inventory [6], soybean meal inventory [8], oil mill soybean crushing [10], palm oil inventory [17], rapeseed oil inventory [19], rapeseed inventory [21], and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [23]. Demand - Related - Demand aspects include the apparent consumption of soybean oil [12] and the apparent consumption of soybean meal [14].