大越期货尿素早报-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are falling from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being fulfilled. However, the domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1570 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2601 contract basis is -60, with a premium/discount ratio of -3.8%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), which is also bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, suggesting a bearish trend. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [5]. - Factors favoring the urea market include strong international prices and the rebound of agricultural demand, while the main negative factor is the domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, industrial demand is weak, with the compound fertilizer operating rate being neutral year - on - year and the melamine operating rate falling. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being fulfilled. The domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1570 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [5]. - Basis: The UR2601 contract basis is -60, with a premium/discount ratio of -3.8%, indicating a bearish signal [5]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), which is bearish [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal [5]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, suggesting a bearish trend [5]. - Expectation: The industrial demand is weak, agricultural demand is rebounding, international urea prices are strong, and the export volume has increased. However, the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [5]. - Likely Factors: Strong international prices and the rebound of agricultural demand [6]. - Negative Factors: Domestic oversupply [6]. - Main Logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [6]. Spot and Futures Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | Spot delivery product price is 1570 (+10), Shandong spot price is 1570 (+10), Henan spot price is 1570 (0), FOB China price is 2691 [7]. | | Futures Market | UR01 contract price is 1630 (+7), UR05 contract price is 1710 (+1), UR09 contract price is 1740 (-2), UR2601 contract basis is -60, premium/discount ratio is -3.8% [5][7]. | | Inventory | Warehouse receipts are 3900 (+2445), UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), UR manufacturer inventory is 155.4 million tons, UR port inventory is 11.0 million tons [5][7]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10] |