大越期货玻璃早报-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass supply has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period, with increasing disturbances on the supply side recently. However, the recovery of terminal demand is weak, so it is expected that glass will mainly move in a volatile manner [3][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract increased from 1093 yuan/ton to 1105 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.10%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large glass panels remained unchanged at 1048 yuan/ton. The main basis decreased from -45 yuan/ton to -57 yuan/ton, a change of 26.67% [8]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large panels in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1048 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - No specific content on cost side analysis was provided other than mentioning glass production profit, but no detailed data was given. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 226, with an operating rate of 76.35%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing a stable recovery [24][26]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons [30]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 65.79 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.24% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [45]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass shows production, consumption, output growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio from 2017 to 2024E. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, the output growth rate is 3.94%, the consumption growth rate is -1.15%, and the net import ratio is -0.90% [46]. Influencing Factors Summary - Positive Factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. Some production lines in the Shahe area are undergoing "coal - to - gas" conversion, increasing supply - side disturbances [5]. - Negative Factors: The terminal demand in the real estate sector remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the inventory of raw glass [6].