大越期货原油早报-20251105

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overnight crude oil oscillated, and the news was relatively calm. Geopolitical concerns may intensify as the US has formulated various response plans to control Venezuelan oil resources. The market is cautious about the future, and it is difficult to break through the upper pressure level in the short - term without geopolitical boost. SC2512 is expected to trade in the 460 - 470 range, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - For crude oil 2512, the fundamentals are neutral as the US government shutdown continues, OPEC+ may pause production increase in Q1 next year, and Venezuelan oil exports decreased in October. The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. Inventory data indicates a decrease in US API and EIA inventories, which is also bullish. The 20 - day moving average is flat with the price above it, showing a neutral signal. The main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil are long - increasing, which is bullish [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Kazakhstan's national energy company raised the 2025 production estimates of Kashagan and Karachaganak oil fields, with a combined increase of 510,000 tons. - The US government shutdown entered the 35th day on Tuesday, affecting federal employees, public services, and food stamp supply. There are signs that senators may be approaching an agreement. - OPEC's oil production in October increased by 300,000 barrels per day compared to September, but the growth rate slowed down [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Focus - Bullish factors include positive signals from China - US trade negotiations, increased sanctions on Russia, and OPEC+ pausing production increase in Q1 next year. - Bearish factors include the easing of the Middle East situation, the risk of US government shutdown, and OPEC+ considering further production increase. The short - term market is driven by intensified geopolitical conflicts, while the medium - to - long - term faces the risk of increased supply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Inventory Data: US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.02 million barrels in the week ending October 24, and EIA inventory decreased by 6.858 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 211,000 barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 1.334 million barrels in the week ending October 24. As of November 4, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.202 million barrels [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of September 23, the net long position of WTI crude oil increased. As of October 28, the net long position of Brent crude oil also increased [3].