大越期货豆粕早报-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 2980 and 3040. The short - term trend will be affected by the US soybean market, with uncertainties in China's soybean procurement volume and good US soybean harvest weather limiting the upward space. Domestically, the low - season demand and spot price discounts will suppress the upward movement [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate between 4000 and 4100. The short - term trend will be influenced by China's US soybean procurement and US soybean harvest weather. The cost - advantage of domestic soybeans over imported ones will support the price bottom, while the high volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production will limit the price increase [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's US soybean procurement volume and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will decline in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills will also fall from a high level. Affected by the relatively normal US soybean harvest weather and the preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal will return to range - bound trading [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing the price outlook. The soybean meal market will be affected by both the US soybean market and the off - season demand, returning to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The relatively high inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, the potential for weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas, and the impact of the preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations will keep soybean meal in a short - term range - bound state, waiting for further guidance on the US soybean yield and the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertainties in the US soybean - producing area weather [14]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival volume of domestic imported soybeans in November, the listing of harvested US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a US soybean bumper harvest [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market bottom, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supporting the domestic soybean price outlook [15]. - Bearish factors: a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppressing the soybean price outlook [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Soybean Futures and Spot Prices: From October 27 to November 4, the soybean meal futures oscillated and rebounded, while the spot price was relatively stable, with the spot discount slightly widening. The soybean futures prices also fluctuated during this period, and the spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed certain changes [16][18]. - Soybean and Meal - type Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From October 24 to November 4, the soybean (bean one and bean two) and soybean meal warehouse receipts changed, with some increases and decreases [20]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show changes in factors such as harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [31][32]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2015 to 2025/26 are presented, including different stages of sowing, growth, and harvesting [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 show changes in factors such as planting area, yield, output, and end - of - period inventory of soybeans [43]. - Imported Soybean Arrival Volume: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in November is expected to decline from a high level, with an overall year - on - year increase [46]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content