大越期货菜粕早报-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2460 - 2520. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. The market will be affected by soybean meal in the short term and maintain range - bound oscillations. The overall view is neutral [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in the 2460 - 2520 range. Its fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, inventory is bullish, the price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward (bullish), the main position shows more orders decreasing but capital inflow (bullish). It is expected to return to an oscillating pattern due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been levied. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and additional import deposit on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of China's anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From October 27 to November 4, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 2997 to 3079 yuan, and the trading volume ranged from 5.35 to 15.08 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2480 to 2610 yuan, and the trading volume was mostly 0. The difference between the average transaction prices of soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, ranging from 460 to 528 yuan [13]. - From October 27 to November 4, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract ranged from 2335 to 2497 yuan, the far - month 2605 contract ranged from 2323 to 2380 yuan, and the rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian ranged from 2480 to 2610 yuan. Rapeseed meal futures bottomed out and rebounded, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a small fluctuation in the spot premium [15][17]. - From October 24 to November 4, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 4260 to 2955 [16]. - In October, the import volume of rapeseed remained stable, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed continued to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory was at a low level. The oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume remained low [22][24][26]. - Aquatic fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [34]. 3.5 Position Data - The report does not provide specific and detailed position data other than the fact that the main long orders decreased and capital inflowed [9].