棉花早报-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market shows a mixed picture with both bullish and bearish factors. The upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton is a bearish factor, but the slight increase in seed cotton purchase prices and the reduction of tariffs after the Sino - US leaders' meeting are positive. The cotton futures main contract 01 has rebounded and is currently in a short - term sideways consolidation between 13,500 - 13,700 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Different institutions' reports show varying data on cotton production, consumption, and inventory. For example, ICAC's 11 - month report for the 25/26 season indicates a production of 25.4 million tons and consumption of 25 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. China's cotton imports in September were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, while cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [5]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,841, with a basis of 1306 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [5]. - Inventory: China's Ministry of Agriculture predicts an ending inventory of 8.22 million tons for the 25/26 season in October, which is bearish [5]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, but the overall main position is bearish [5]. - Expectation: New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities. The previous negative news has been gradually digested, and the seed cotton purchase price has increased slightly. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, tariffs have been reduced. The futures main contract 01 has rebounded and is currently in a short - term sideways consolidation between 13,500 - 13,700 [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September): The total global cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to be 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons. Consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons. Ending inventory is expected to be 15.925 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [11]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 25/26 season, global production is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically unchanged; ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons (3.9%) year - on - year. The price forecast (Cotlook A Index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [13]. - Ministry of Agriculture Data (October): For the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is 636,000 tons, imports are 140,000 tons, consumption is 740,000 tons, and ending inventory is 822,000 tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [15]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the content.