大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251105

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: November 5, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral. The macroeconomic environment shows a decline in manufacturing sentiment, and the long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil has limited support for the cost side of polyolefins. However, factors such as the rebound of oil prices due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the staged easing of Sino - US relations have an impact on the market. It is expected that the PE and PP markets will fluctuate today [4][6]. Summary by Directory LLDPE Analysis - Fundamentals: In October, the official PMI was 49, a 0.8 - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil has limited support for the cost side. The demand in the agricultural film peak season continues, and the start - up rate remains high, while the restocking of other film types is gradually ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6880 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 1, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.0%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 46.6 million tons (-9.9), which is neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, showing a bullish trend [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract fluctuates on the disk. After the Sino - US summit in Busan and the escalation of sanctions on Russian oil, crude oil has rebounded. With the continued demand in the agricultural film peak season and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4]. - Factors: Positive factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the staged easing of Sino - US relations; negative factors include weak demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Analysis - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic environment shows a decline in manufacturing sentiment, and the long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil has limited support for the cost side. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has recovered. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6550 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 10, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [6]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 59.5 million tons (-4.3), showing a bearish trend [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [6]. - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, showing a bearish trend [6]. - Expectation: The PP main contract fluctuates on the disk. After the Sino - US summit in Busan and the escalation of sanctions on Russian oil, crude oil has rebounded. With the support of downstream peak - season demand and a neutral - to - high industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will fluctuate today [6]. - Factors: Positive factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the staged easing of Sino - US relations; negative factors include weak demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7]. Market Data - Spot and Futures Prices: The spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6880 (-30), and the price of the 01 contract is 6879 (-9); the spot price of PP delivery products is 6550 (0), and the price of the 01 contract is 6560 (-16) [8]. - Inventory Data: The LLDPE warehouse receipt is 12675 (0), and the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 46.6 million tons (0); the PP warehouse receipt is 14569 (0), and the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 59.5 million tons (0) [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different trends. The production capacity growth rate was relatively high in 2020 (17.8%) and 2025E (20.5%). The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023 [13]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also changed. The production capacity growth rate was relatively high in 2020 (15.5%) and 2023 (14.1%). The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 [15].