Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry is affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand. For industrial silicon, there is an increase in cost support, supply-side production scheduling is rising, and demand recovery remains at a low level. For polysilicon, supply-side production scheduling is decreasing, and overall demand shows a continuous decline [6][8]. - Industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8785 - 8985, and polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52890 - 54540 [6][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Fundamentals: Last week, the supply was 100,000 tons, a 0.44% decrease from the previous week, and the demand was 87,000 tons, also showing a decline. Polysilicon inventory is at a neutral level, with silicon wafers and battery cells in a loss state, and components in a profitable state. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of -520 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 68.56%, which is flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, with an import loss of 211 yuan/ton [6]. - Basis: On November 4th, the spot price of non-oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 415 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 558,000 tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week. Sample enterprise inventory was 168,100 tons, a 0.24% increase from the previous week. The inventory of major ports was 124,000 tons [6]. - Disk: The MA20 of the 01 contract was upward, and the futures price closed above the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The net short position of the main position decreased [6]. - Expectation: Supply-side production scheduling is increasing, approaching the historical average level. Demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. Industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8785 - 8985 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 28,200 tons, a 4.40% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule for November is expected to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the production of silicon wafers was 14.24GW, a 3.32% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 189,300 tons, a 2.49% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for November is 57.66GW, a 4.92% decrease from the previous month. The production of battery cells in October was 59.27GW, a 2.78% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 3.85GW, a 36.04% decrease from the previous week. Currently, production is in a loss state. The production schedule for November is 58.68GW, a 0.99% decrease from the previous month. The production of components in October was 48.1GW, a 3.60% decrease from the previous month. The expected production of components in November is 46.92GW, a 2.45% decrease from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month, and the European monthly inventory is 28.1GW, a 5.70% decrease from the previous month. Currently, component production is in a profitable state [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N-type polysilicon in the industry is 38,760 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,240 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On November 4th, the price of N-type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -1515 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was lower than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 261,000 tons, a 1.16% increase from the previous week, at a neutral level compared to the historical average [8]. - Disk: The MA20 of the 01 contract was upward, and the futures price closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The net long position of the main position decreased [8]. - Expectation: Supply-side production scheduling is continuously decreasing, and overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support is strengthening. Polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52890 - 54540 [8]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Overview - The prices of most industrial silicon contracts decreased compared to the previous day, with the 01 contract of East China non-oxygenated 553 silicon at 8885 yuan/ton, a 2.79% decrease from the previous day [15]. - The weekly social inventory was 558,000 tons, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises in Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Sichuan showed different trends [6][15]. - The production and operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions also showed different trends, with the production of sample enterprises decreasing by 2.36% compared to the previous week [15]. 3. Polysilicon Market Overview - The prices of most polysilicon contracts decreased compared to the previous day, with the 01 contract at 53,715 yuan/ton, a 4.19% decrease from the previous day [17]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained relatively stable, with some showing slight fluctuations [17]. - The weekly production of silicon wafers was 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease from the previous week [17]. 4. Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Price Difference Trends - The basis of the SI main contract and the price difference between East China 421 and 553 showed different trends over time [20]. 5. Polysilicon Disk Price Trends - The price and trading volume of the PS main contract, as well as the basis of the main contract, showed different trends in the short term [23]. 6. Industrial Silicon Inventory - The inventory of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses and ports, as well as the weekly inventory of SMM sample enterprises, showed different trends over time [25]. 7. Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The weekly production of SMM sample enterprises in different regions and the monthly production of industrial silicon by specification showed different trends over time [28][29]. - The operating rates of SMM sample enterprises in different regions also showed different trends [30]. 8. Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends - The cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang showed different trends over time [35]. 9. Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon showed different trends, with factors such as production, import, export, and consumption affecting the balance [37][40]. 10. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - DMC: The daily capacity utilization rate, profit, cost, and production of DMC showed different trends over time. The price of DMC also showed different trends in different years [43]. - Downstream Products: The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 showed different trends over time [45]. - Import - Export and Inventory: The monthly import and export volumes and inventory of DMC showed different trends over time [49]. 11. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply: The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12, the import cost and profit of ADC12, and the import - export situation of Chinese unforged aluminum alloy showed different trends over time [52]. - Inventory and Production: The monthly production of primary and secondary aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots showed different trends over time [55]. - Demand: The monthly production of automobiles and the export of aluminum alloy wheels showed different trends over time [56]. 12. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Fundamentals: The cost, price, inventory, production, and operating rate of polysilicon showed different trends over time [62]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon showed different trends, with factors such as supply, import, export, and consumption affecting the balance [65]. - Silicon Wafer Trends: The price, production, inventory, demand, and net export of silicon wafers showed different trends over time [68]. - Battery Cell Trends: The price, production, inventory, operating rate, and export of battery cells showed different trends over time [71]. - Photovoltaic Component Trends: The price, inventory, production, and export of photovoltaic components showed different trends over time [74]. - Photovoltaic Accessory Trends: The prices of photovoltaic coatings, the import - export of photovoltaic films, the production of photovoltaic glass, the prices of high - purity quartz sand, and the import - export of solder strips showed different trends over time [77]. - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends: The silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost - profit, battery cell cost - profit, and component cost - profit of 210mm double - sided double - glass components showed different trends over time [79]. - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends: No specific content was provided in the text.
工业硅期货早报-20251105
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-05 03:17