大越期货燃料油早报-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market faces oversupply and weak downstream bunker activities, but the unfeasibility of East - West arbitrage may reduce December European arbitrage cargoes and ease oversupply; the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by stable bunker demand, but competitive quotes for November shipments suppress spot spreads [3] - The current situation of Singapore's fuel oil market is overall weak. The FU2601 is expected to trade in the 2750 - 2790 range, and LU2601 in the 3300 - 3340 range [3] - Crude oil is oscillating, with some support from news, but market sentiment is still cautious, and the bunker market lacks support [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Singapore fuel oil inventory on the week of October 29 was 20.929 billion barrels, a decrease of 652 million barrels [3][8] - The spot prices of various fuel oils decreased. For example, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 476.00 to 469.00 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.47% [6] - The futures prices of FU and LU decreased. The FU futures price dropped from 2785 to 2769, a decrease of 0.57%; the LU futures price dropped from 3322 to 3315, a decrease of 0.21% [5] 2. Multi - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Russia extended fuel export restrictions; the cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4] - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified [4] - Market drivers: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4] 3. Fundamental Data - Fundamental situation: The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market has sufficient supply and weak downstream activities; the high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by stable bunker demand [3] - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is - 54 yuan/ton, low - sulfur fuel oil basis is - 4 yuan/ton, with spot at a discount to futures [3] - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased in the week of October 29, which is bullish [3] - Disk: Prices are near the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3] - Main positions: High - sulfur main positions are short, with short positions increasing; low - sulfur main positions are long, with long positions decreasing [3] 5. Spread Data - The report shows a chart of high - low sulfur futures spreads [11] Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from August 20 to October 29 shows fluctuations, with a significant decrease in the week of October 29 [8]