大越期货生猪期货早报-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market is expected to see a decrease in both supply and demand this week. Pig prices are likely to decline in the short - term, with a mid - term range - bound oscillation pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly group farms' slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. - The spot price has a premium over the futures price, and the current inventory shows an increase, while the price is below the 20 - day moving average with a downward direction, and the net short position of the main contract is increasing [10]. - It is expected that the pig price will bottom out and return to a range - bound pattern, with the LH2601 contract oscillating between 11,500 and 11,900 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Supply is expected to decrease in both pigs and meat this week. Demand is weakened by the post - holiday reduced consumer willingness, resulting in a short - term decline in fresh pork consumption. The market is expected to have a double - decrease in supply and demand, with short - term price decline and mid - term range - bound oscillation. Neutral view [10]. - Basis: The national average spot price is 11,940 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 255 yuan/ton, indicating a premium of the spot over the futures. Bullish [10]. - Inventory: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% month - on - month and 4.2% year - on - year increase. Bearish [10]. - Market Chart: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward. Bearish [10]. - Main Position: The main position is net short with an increase in short positions. Bearish [10]. - Expectation: Pig supply and demand are both decreasing. The pig price is expected to bottom out and return to a range - bound pattern this week, with the LH2601 contract oscillating between 11,500 and 11,900 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. The slaughter of large pigs has decreased, resulting in a double - decrease in supply and demand. The spot price is expected to be weak in the short - term and range - bound in the mid - term [12]. - After the festivals, pork demand has weakened in the short - term, but the spot price is supported by the decrease in supply and is expected to bottom out and rebound. The room for further price decline is limited [12]. - The losses in pig farming have recently expanded, reducing the enthusiasm for large pig slaughter in the short - term. The double - decrease in supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price has bottomed out and rebounded after the National Day, and the futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the mid - term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish: The domestic pig supply enters the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic pig spot price is limited [13]. - Bearish: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures and Spot Prices: The document provides the prices of pig futures contracts (near - month 2511, main 2601), pig futures warehouse receipts, and the spot prices of foreign ternary pigs in different regions from October 28 to November 4 [14]. - Market Trends: Multiple charts show the trends of pig futures basis, spreads, spot prices of different pig specifications, and various supply - side and demand - side indicators, such as inventory, slaughter, and consumption [15][17][23]. 3.5 Position Data The main position is net short with an increase in short positions, which is a bearish signal [10].