大越期货PVC期货早报-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is increasing, with the supply pressure rising this week and expected to increase further next week as maintenance is expected to decrease and production scheduling is expected to rise slightly [7][9]. - The current demand may remain sluggish, although the overall downstream operating rate is higher than the historical average, some downstream sectors such as profiles and pipes are still below the historical average [7]. - The cost side is mixed, with the cost of the calcium carbide method weakening and the cost of the ethylene method strengthening, resulting in an overall weakening of the cost [9]. - The overall inventory is at a neutral level, with factory - in - stock inventory increasing and social inventory decreasing [9]. - The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4642 - 4698 [9]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth [13]. - The main influencing factors include the implementation degree of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide methods [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Likely Positive Factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [12]. - Likely Negative Factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data Supply - In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprises produced 329,250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, and ethylene method enterprises produced 147,710 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76% [7]. Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 50.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68 percentage points, higher than the historical average. However, the operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, and some other sectors were below the historical average, and the operating rate of downstream films decreased by 0.70 percentage points, while the operating rate of downstream paste resin increased by 8.93 percentage points [7]. Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 763.08 yuan/ton, with losses increasing by 5.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 544.5 yuan/ton, with losses decreasing by 2.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,269.75 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average [8]. Basis - On November 4, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,650 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 20 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price [9]. Inventory - Factory inventory was 337,968 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 252,368 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%, and ethylene method factory inventory was 85,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. Social inventory was 544,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.82%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.89% [9]. Disk - MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20 [9]. Main Position - The main position was net short, and short positions increased [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including prices, price changes, and inventory data of different types of PVC enterprises, month - to - month spreads, downstream operating rates, and profit and cost data [16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report presents the basis trend chart of PVC futures, showing the relationship between the basis, East China market price, and the closing price of the main contract [19]. - Price and Volume Trend: It shows the price and trading volume trends of PVC futures from September to November 2025, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and trading volume, as well as the position change trends of the top 5 and top 20 seats [22]. - Spread Analysis: The report analyzes the spread of the main contract, presenting the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread data from 2024 to 2025 [25]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and production data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit and consumption data of chlor - alkali [28][31][33][35][38]. - Supply Trend: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production data of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method of PVC [40][42]. - Demand Trend: It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of different downstream sectors such as profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin, as well as the profit, cost, production, and apparent consumption data of paste resin, and real - estate - related data such as real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area [44][46][49][51][53]. - Inventory: It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days data [57]. - Ethylene Method: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene method, and import spread of vinyl chloride [59]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly supply - demand trend data of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export [62].