《黑色》日报-20251105

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Recently, the decline in iron ore prices has led to a rapid drop in steel prices. The iron element supply is in a loose pattern, and the decrease in hot metal production suppresses iron ore prices. It is expected that steel mills will actively reduce production in winter to ease the pressure of winter storage. The single-side prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to test the support levels of 3000 and 3200 respectively. The strategy of longing coking coal and shorting hot-rolled coils can continue to be held [2]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures showed a weak downward trend. The supply side has a rebound in port arrivals, while the demand side sees a decline in hot metal production and weakening restocking demand from steel mills. The inventory pressure is increasing. The iron ore driving force is weakening. The strategy is to short iron ore 2601 on rallies, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and recommend the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [4][6]. Coke Industry - The coke futures fluctuated downward. The spot price has been raised for the third time, and there is still an expectation of further increases. The cost is supported by the rebound of coking coal prices, but the demand is suppressed by environmental protection restrictions and low steel mill profits. The overall inventory is slightly increasing. The strategy is to go long on coke 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850, and conduct the arbitrage of longing coking coal and shorting coke [7]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures fluctuated downward, with a divergence between the futures and the spot. The domestic coking coal market continues to be strong, but traders are becoming cautious. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is weakening. The overall inventory is slightly decreasing. The strategy is to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1200 - 1350, and conduct the arbitrage of longing coking coal and shorting coke [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the rebar 05 contract decreased by 37 to 3108, and the hot-rolled coil 05 contract decreased by 32 to 3272 [2]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price decreased by 20 to 2930, and the plate billet price remained unchanged at 3730. The profits of hot-rolled coils in East China and North China decreased by 10, while the profit in South China remained unchanged [2]. Production - The daily average hot metal production increased by 3.5 to 239.9, with a growth rate of 1.5%. The production of five major steel products increased by 10 to 875.3, with a growth rate of 1.2% [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 41.1 to 1513.7, with a decline rate of -2.6%. The rebar inventory decreased by 19.6 to 602.5, with a decline rate of -3.1% [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.5 to 9.3, with a decline rate of -5.4%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 23.7 to 916.4, with a growth rate of 2.7% [2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The costs of various iron ore warehouse receipts decreased. For example, the cost of PB powder warehouse receipts decreased by 6.6 to 829.3, with a decline rate of -0.8% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ores in Rizhao Port decreased. For example, the price of PB powder decreased by 6 to 782, with a decline rate of -0.8% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrivals increased by 1189.3 to 3218.4, with a growth rate of 58.6%. The global shipments decreased by 174.6 to 3213.8, with a decline rate of -5.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, with a decline rate of -1.5%. The national pig iron monthly production decreased by 374.7 to 6604.6, with a decline rate of -5.4% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 171.6 to 14714.08, with a growth rate of 1.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 229.3 to 8849.9, with a decline rate of -2.5% [4]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1612. The coke 01 contract decreased by 43 to 1729, with a decline rate of -2.4% [7]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.2, with a growth rate of 0.2% [7]. Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, with a decline rate of -1.5% [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 8.1 to 900.0, with a growth rate of 0.9%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.2 to 59.9, with a growth rate of 2.1% [7]. Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 1.8 to -3.6, with a growth rate of 49.2% [7]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1420. The coking coal 01 contract decreased by 32 to 1253, with a decline rate of -2.5% [7]. Supply - The raw coal production increased by 3.8 to 851.8, with a growth rate of 0.4%, and the clean coal production increased by 1.5 to 434.9, with a growth rate of 0.3% [7]. Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.2, with a growth rate of 0.2% [7]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 9.2 to 81.1, with a decline rate of -10.2%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 22.8 to 1052.5, with a growth rate of 2.2% [7].