《农产品》日报-20251105

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views Palm Oil - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to gradually stop falling and recover after the release of risks following the MPOB supply - demand report. The overall view of near - term weakness and long - term strength remains unchanged. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are in a weakening trend and seeking support at 8500 yuan [1]. Soybean Oil - Uncertainty in US biodiesel policy and potential CBOT soybean price corrections may drag down CBOT soybean oil. In the domestic market, soybean supply is sufficient, but oil mills' losses support their price - holding mentality [1]. Pork - The pig price has changed from strong to weak due to sufficient market supply. However, the slowdown in the overall slaughter progress in November may boost the pig price to some extent. The current market is in a weakening range - bound pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread can be held [4]. Meal - Although domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, cost - side support is strengthening, and the downward space is limited. There is an 800 - million - ton gap in shipments from November to January, and it is difficult to purchase cheap soybeans [7]. Corn - Currently, the corn market is under pressure from concentrated supply, and the futures price rebound is limited, showing a low - level range - bound pattern. In the long - term, it will be in a tight - balance situation with policy support [8]. Sugar - The expected increase in the supply surplus and weakening energy prices have led to a weakening of the raw sugar price. The domestic sugar price is also under pressure but is relatively resistant to decline due to cost support and market sentiment. The spot market is in a low - level range - bound pattern [13]. Eggs - In the short term, the egg market has a supply - demand imbalance, and prices are expected to be range - bound between 2900 - 3300. With the slow recovery of demand, prices may gradually rise [16]. Cotton - The new cotton cost provides strong support for the cotton price, but there is also hedging pressure. The downstream demand is weak, but the inventory pressure is not high. Short - term cotton prices are expected to be range - bound [18]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - On November 4, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8570 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous day; the futures price of P2601 was 8616 yuan, down 48 yuan. The basis of P2601 was - 46 yuan, up 18 yuan. The inventory is expected to reach about 2.44 million tons at the end of the month [1]. Soybean Oil - On November 4, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8420 yuan, up 50 yuan; the futures price of Y2601 was 8108 yuan, down 2 yuan. The basis of Y2601 was 312 yuan, up 52 yuan. The current soybean supply in the domestic market is sufficient, and the factory inventory is at a high level [1]. Pork - Futures: The basis of the main contract was 265 yuan, down 200 yuan; the price of the 2605 contract was 11860 yuan, up 60 yuan; the price of the 2601 contract was 11685 yuan, down 50 yuan. Spot: The prices in various regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan all decreased [4]. Meal - Soybean Meal: On November 4, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3050 yuan, up 10 yuan; the futures price of M2601 was 3015 yuan, down 11 yuan. The basis of M2601 was 35 yuan, up 21 yuan. Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2530 yuan, up 10 yuan; the futures price of RM2601 was 2497 yuan, up 6 yuan [7]. Corn - Corn Futures: The price of the 2601 contract was 2135 yuan, down 6 yuan; the basis was 15 yuan, up 6 yuan. Corn Starch: The price of the 2601 contract was 2444 yuan, down 9 yuan. The price in the Northeast is in a narrow - range shock, and the price in the North China is relatively stable [8]. Sugar - Futures: The price of the 2601 contract was 5481 yuan, down 18 yuan; the price of the 2605 contract was 5431 yuan, down 2 yuan. Spot: The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5750 yuan, and the price in Kunming was 5680 yuan, down 15 yuan [13]. Eggs - Futures: The price of the 12 - contract was 3144 yuan, down 14 yuan; the price of the 01 - contract was 3337 yuan, down 10 yuan. Spot: The price in the production area remained at 2.88 yuan per catty. The chicken - raising profit was - 24.44 yuan per bird, up 1.66 yuan [15]. Cotton - Futures: The price of the 2605 contract was 13522 yuan, down 60 yuan; the price of the 2601 contract was 13535 yuan, down 65 yuan. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14640 yuan, down 16 yuan. The commercial inventory increased by 68.4%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 4.3% [18].