Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint Dark - colored rubber has reached an inventory accumulation inflection point, market sentiment is weak, and rubber prices have further declined. Future attention should be paid to raw material output in the main production areas during the peak season and macro - level changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if not, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.34%. The basis of whole - latex rubber increased by 170 yuan/ton to - 275 yuan/ton, a rise of 38.20%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 14,400 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.37% [1]. - Inter - month Spread: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton, a rise of 6.90%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 85 yuan/ton, a rise of 5.56% [1]. - Fundamentals: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 2,000 tons to 458,800 tons, a decline of 0.43%; Indonesia's production decreased by 8,500 tons to 189,000 tons, a decline of 4.30%; India's production increased by 5,000 tons to 50,000 tons, a rise of 11.11%; China's production increased by 12,200 tons to 113,700 tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 73.41%, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 0.24 percentage points to 65.34%. In August, domestic tire production increased by 859,000 tons to 10.2954 million tons, a rise of 9.10%. In September, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased by 6.71 million pieces to 56.3 million pieces, a decline of 10.65% [1]. - Inventory Change: The bonded area inventory increased by 15,439 tons to 447,668 tons, a rise of 3.57%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,015 tons to 44,655 tons, a rise of 4.73% [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint For soda ash, the price is trending weakly, with supply exceeding demand. The market is under pressure, and the operation should be bearish. For glass, although there is a short - term demand expectation during the peak season, in the long - term, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Short - term long opportunities at low prices can be captured [3]. Summary by Directory - Glass - related Prices and Spreads: The prices of glass in North China, East China, and the 2505 and 2509 contracts remained unchanged. The price of glass in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,200 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.83%. The 05 basis remained unchanged at - 109 yuan/ton [3]. - Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and the Northwest remained unchanged. The 2505 contract price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,280 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.78%. The 2509 contract price decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 1,354 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.62%. The 05 basis increased by 10 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton, a rise of 100% [3]. - Supply: The soda ash开工率 decreased by 1.72 percentage points to 86.89%, and the weekly output decreased by 13,000 tons to 757,600 tons, a decline of 1.71%. The daily melting volume of float glass remained unchanged at 161,300 tons, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 750 tons to 88,540 tons, a decline of 0.84% [3]. - Inventory: The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.966 million weight boxes to 65.79 million weight boxes, a rise of 4.72%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 42,000 tons to 1.702 million tons, a rise of 2.54%. The soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 22,000 tons to 676,900 tons, a decline of 3.18% [3]. - Real Estate Data: The year - on - year change in new construction area increased by 0.09 percentage points to - 0.09%. The year - on - year change in construction area decreased by 2.43 percentage points to 0.05%. The year - on - year change in completion area decreased by 0.03 percentage points to - 0.22%. The year - on - year change in sales area decreased by 6.50 percentage points to - 6.55% [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, while the futures price fluctuates downward. In November, the market still faces inventory accumulation pressure. Although supply may decline slightly and demand may remain stable, the flow of warehouse receipts to the spot market increases supply. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. When the price drops to around 8,500 yuan/ton, one can consider buying on dips [4]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Main Contract Basis: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,450 yuan/ton. The basis of SI4210 industrial silicon increased by 255 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton, a rise of 106.25% [4]. - Inter - month Spread: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to - 400 yuan/ton, a rise of 9.09%. The 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton, a rise of 40% [4]. - Fundamentals (Monthly): National industrial silicon production increased by 31,400 tons to 452,200 tons, a rise of 7.46%. Xinjiang's production increased by 32,400 tons to 235,600 tons, a rise of 15.94%. Yunnan's production decreased by 5,700 tons to 53,800 tons, a decline of 9.60%. The national开工率 increased by 6.07 percentage points to 61.94%. Xinjiang's开工率 increased by 13.39 percentage points to 74%. Yunnan's开工率 decreased by 5.68 percentage points to 41.71% [4]. - Inventory Change: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 30 tons to 10,810 tons, a decline of 0.28%. Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 50 tons to 3,460 tons, a rise of 1.47%. The social inventory decreased by 100 tons to 558,000 tons, a decline of 0.18% [4]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The spot price of polysilicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the futures price dropped significantly by 2,350 yuan/ton to 53,715 yuan/ton. After the sharp decline in futures, the futures premium has also significantly decreased. In November, supply pressure decreases, but demand also decreases. The market is expected to remain in a high - level range - bound state. Trading strategies include buying on dips in the futures market, selling put options around 50,000 in the options market, and buying photovoltaic ETFs, new - energy ETFs, or related stocks in the equity market [5]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: The average price of N - type re - fed material decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 52,200 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.10%. The basis of N - type material increased by 2,300 yuan/ton to - 1,515 yuan/ton, a rise of 60.29% [5]. - Futures Price and Inter - month Spread: The main contract price decreased by 2,350 yuan/ton to 53,715 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.19%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous month increased by 80 yuan/ton to - 2,175 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.55% [5]. - Fundamentals (Weekly): Silicon wafer production decreased by 0.49 GW to 14.24 GW, a decline of 3.33%. Polysilicon production decreased by 1,300 tons to 28,200 tons, a decline of 4.41% [5]. - Fundamentals (Monthly): Polysilicon production increased by 4,000 tons to 134,000 tons, a rise of 3.08%. Polysilicon imports increased by 300 tons to 130 tons, a rise of 28.46%. Polysilicon exports decreased by 800 tons to 2,100 tons, a decline of 28.16% [5]. - Inventory Change: Polysilicon inventory increased by 300 tons to 26,100 tons, a rise of 1.16%. Silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.46 GW to 18.93 GW, a rise of 2.49% [5]. Group 5: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The log futures market is expected to continue its weak - side oscillation. This week, the supply of logs at ports is increasing, but downstream orders are insufficient. The market is under pressure, but the significant inversion of domestic and foreign prices provides some support for the futures price [7]. Summary by Directory - Futures and Spot Prices: The price of log 2511 increased by 0.5 yuan/cubic meter to 740.5 yuan/cubic meter, a rise of 0.07%. The price of log 2601 decreased by 5.5 yuan/cubic meter to 776.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.70%. The price of 3.9A medium - sized radiata pine at Rizhao Port decreased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 750 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 1.32% [7]. - Cost: Import Cost Calculation: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.01 to 7.131. The import theoretical cost increased by 8.34 yuan/cubic meter to 812.94 yuan/cubic meter, a rise of 1% [7]. - Supply (Monthly): Port shipments increased by 247,000 cubic meters to 2.013 million cubic meters, a rise of 13.99%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8 to 54, a rise of 17.39% [7]. - Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly): National inventory increased by 40,000 cubic meters to 2.88 million cubic meters, a rise of 1.41%. Shandong's inventory increased by 18,000 cubic meters to 1.883 million cubic meters, a rise of 0.97% [7]. - Demand: Average Daily Outbound Volume (Weekly): National average daily outbound volume decreased by 0.16 million cubic meters to 6.28 million cubic meters, a decline of 2%. Shandong's average daily outbound volume decreased by 0.35 million cubic meters to 3.19 million cubic meters, a decline of 10% [7].
《特殊商品》日报-20251105
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-11-05 03:41