《能源化工》日报-20251105

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - Supply: PP supply recovery slowed due to more unplanned maintenance, while PE supply is expected to increase as maintenance nears its peak. Overseas inventory clearance at the end of the year may impact the market [2]. - Demand: Demand has improved with increased downstream开工率, but the peak season for agricultural film is approaching, and demand is expected to decline [2]. - Strategy: The 01 contract faces inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may present long - term low - buying opportunities. A reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread is recommended [2]. Methanol Industry - Supply: The port methanol market is under pressure due to high inventory, postponed Iranian gas restrictions, and increased imports. The restart of domestic devices and overseas device shutdowns also affect the supply [5][6]. - Demand: Multiple MTO units reduced their loads due to profit issues, and subsequent maintenance is expected to increase [6]. - Strategy: The 01 contract will continue to trade the "weak reality" logic until Iranian gas restrictions take effect [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is stable despite some plant maintenance, and demand has support in the short term. However, the November supply - demand is expected to be loose, and oil price support is limited. Strategies include reducing long positions above 6600 and short - selling on rallies, and narrowing the PX - SC spread [9]. - PTA: There are many planned maintenance in November, and demand is relatively high. But supply - demand is slightly loose, and oil price support is weak. Strategies include reducing long positions above 4600, short - selling on rallies, and a rolling reverse spread for TA1 - 5 [9]. - Ethylene Glycol: Overseas supply is high in November, and inventory accumulation is expected. Strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options on rallies and a reverse spread for EG1 - 5 [9]. - Short - fiber: Supply is high in the short term, but demand may decline seasonally. Cost support is limited. Strategies are similar to PTA, and narrowing the processing margin on rallies [9]. - Bottle - chip: Supply changes little, and demand is weak in the off - season. The market is in a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price follows the cost. Strategies are similar to PTA, and the processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [9]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply is expected to be loose with many device restarts and new capacity. Demand support is limited as downstream products are mostly in losses. Inventory in East China ports is increasing. Strategies include short - selling on rallies following oil price movements [10]. - Styrene: Supply may slightly decrease, and demand is expected to remain stable. Cost support is weakening. The market is currently in a loose supply - demand situation, and the price drive is limited. Strategies include short - selling on price rebounds for the EB12 contract [10]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: Supply is expected to increase in November with few maintenance enterprises. Demand support is weak as the alumina price is falling and downstream enterprises are consuming their own inventories. The price is expected to be weakly stable, and the overall trend is bearish [11]. - PVC: The supply - demand surplus situation persists. Demand from real estate and other downstream industries is weak, and new capacity will increase supply in November - December. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [11]. Summary by Directory Polyolefin Industry - Prices and Spreads: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices decreased on November 4 compared to November 3. Spot prices of PP and PE also showed changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. The price differences between different contracts and between spot and futures also changed [2]. - Inventory: Both PE and PP inventories showed a de - stocking trend [2]. - 开工率: PE device开工率 decreased slightly, while PP device and powder开工率 increased. Downstream weighted开工率 of both increased [2]. Methanol Industry - Prices and Spreads: MA2601 and MA2605 futures prices decreased on November 4. Spot prices in different regions also decreased, and price differences and basis changed [5]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory increased, while port inventory decreased slightly, and social inventory increased [5]. - 开工率: Domestic upstream enterprise开工率 decreased slightly, overseas upstream enterprise开工率 decreased significantly, and some downstream enterprise开工率 increased [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Prices: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, and other upstream raw material prices also showed different degrees of change [9]. - Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows: Prices of some polyester products changed slightly, and cash flows also showed different trends [9]. - PX - related: PX prices and spreads changed, and the开工率 of Asian and Chinese PX decreased slightly [9]. - PTA - related: PTA prices, processing fees, and开工率 changed, and the market is expected to be slightly loose in terms of supply - demand [9]. - MEG - related: MEG prices, spreads, and开工率 changed, and the market is expected to accumulate inventory [9]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Upstream Prices and Spreads: Crude oil and raw material prices decreased, and pure benzene prices and spreads changed [10]. - Styrene - related Prices and Spreads: Styrene prices and spreads decreased, and cash flows also declined [10]. - Inventory: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased, while styrene inventory decreased [10]. - 开工率: The开工率 of some pure benzene and styrene - related industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [10]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Prices and Spreads: PVC and caustic soda prices and spreads changed on November 4 compared to November 3 [11]. - Overseas Quotes and Export Profits: Overseas quotes for caustic soda and PVC remained stable, but export profits changed [11]. - Supply - related: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries increased, and the profit of PVC production methods also changed [11]. - Demand - related: The开工率 of caustic soda and PVC downstream industries changed, and PVC pre - sales volume increased [11]. - Inventory: Liquid caustic soda inventory in some regions increased, while PVC total social inventory decreased slightly [11].