Report on the Oil and Fat Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, with a chance of gradually bottoming out and rebounding. Domestic palm oil futures are in an oscillatory adjustment phase, while soybean oil supply is expected to remain abundant, but crushers' losses support price - holding. [1] Summary by Category - Price Changes: On November 4, compared with November 3, the spot price of Jiangsu - grade 1 soybean oil increased by 50 yuan to 8420 yuan, with a 0.60% increase; the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 30 yuan to 8570 yuan, with a 0.35% decrease; the spot price of Jiangsu - grade 3 rapeseed oil decreased by 30 yuan to 9770 yuan, with a 0.31% decrease. [1] - Spread Changes: The basis of Y2601 soybean oil increased by 52 yuan to 312 yuan, with a 20.00% increase; the basis of P2601 palm oil increased by 18 yuan to - 46 yuan, with a 28.13% increase; the basis of OI601 rapeseed oil decreased by 3 yuan to 327 yuan, with a 0.91% decrease. [1] - Inventory Outlook: In Malaysia, the market expects the end - of - month palm oil inventory to reach about 2.44 million tons. In China, the soybean inventory at factories was 7.7 million tons last weekend, at a record high since 2021. [1] Report on the Pig Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The pig price has weakened from a strong level. However, the slowdown in the overall slaughter progress in November may boost the pig price to some extent. The current market is in a weakly oscillatory range, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread position can be held. [4] Summary by Category - Price Changes: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the spot price of pigs in Henan decreased by 250 yuan to 11950 yuan/ton; the price of the main contract basis decreased by 200 yuan to 265 yuan/ton, with a 43.01% decrease. [4] - Inventory and Consumption Indicators: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses decreased by 203 to 158004, with a 0.37% decrease; the weekly price of piglets decreased by 6 yuan to 20 yuan/kg, with a 23.08% decrease. [4] Report on the Meal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View China is expected to purchase 12 million tons of new - crop US soybeans this year, which provides support for the US soybean market. However, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but due to cost - side support and negative crushing margins, the downward space for domestic soybean meal is limited. [7] Summary by Category - Price Changes: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased by 10 yuan to 3050 yuan, with a 0.33% increase; the spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 10 yuan to 2530 yuan, with a 0.40% increase. [7] - Spread and Margin Changes: The basis of M2601 soybean meal increased by 21 yuan to 35 yuan, with a 150.00% increase; the basis of RM2601 rapeseed meal increased by 4 yuan to 33 yuan, with a 13.79% increase. The crushing margin for US Gulf January shipments increased by 26 yuan to - 661 yuan, with a 3.8% increase; the crushing margin for Canadian January shipments decreased by 63 yuan to 596 yuan, with a 9.56% decrease. [7] Report on the Corn Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Currently, the corn market is under selling pressure, and the upward movement of the futures price is restricted, remaining in a low - level oscillation. In the long - term, due to low imports, demand resilience, and policy regulation, the corn market will be in a tight - balance situation. [8] Summary by Category - Price Changes: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the price of corn 2601 decreased by 6 yuan to 2135 yuan, with a 0.28% decrease; the price of corn starch 2601 decreased by 9 yuan to 2444 yuan, with a 0.37% decrease. [8] - Inventory and Consumption Indicators: The morning remaining vehicle count at Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 20 to 648, with a 3.18% increase; the inventory of Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 2385 to 66351, with a 3.73% increase. [8] Report on the Sugar Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The expected increase in sugar supply surplus, combined with weakening energy prices and favorable weather in major producing areas, has led to a weak trend in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is also under pressure but is relatively resistant to decline due to cost support and market sentiment. The spot market is sluggish, and the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. [13] Summary by Category - Price Changes: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the price of sugar 2601 decreased by 18 yuan to 5481 yuan, with a 0.33% decrease; the price of ICE raw sugar futures decreased by 0.47 cents to 14.21 cents/pound, with a 3.20% decrease. [13] - Inventory and Consumption Indicators: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 1.1989 million tons to 11.1621 million tons, with a 12.03% increase; the national cumulative sugar sales increased by 0.88 million tons to 10.48 million tons, with a 9.17% increase. [13] Report on the Egg Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the egg market has an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a stalemate but may gradually rise as demand recovers. The egg price is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300. [16] Summary by Category - Price Changes: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the price of the egg 12 - contract decreased by 14 yuan to 3144 yuan/500KG, with a 0.44% decrease; the price of the egg 01 - contract decreased by 10 yuan to 3337 yuan/500KG, with a 0.30% decrease. [15] - Inventory and Consumption Indicators: The price of egg - laying chicks increased by 0.15 yuan to 2.8 yuan/feather, with a 5.66% increase; the price of culled hens decreased by 0.18 yuan to 4.11 yuan/jin, with a 4.20% decrease. [15] Report on the Cotton Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The cost of new cotton provides strong support for the cotton price, but the price faces hedging pressure. The downstream demand is weak, but the inventory pressure of finished products is not significant. The short - term cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range. [18] Summary by Category - Price Changes: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the price of cotton 2605 decreased by 60 yuan to 13522 yuan, with a 0.44% decrease; the price of cotton 2601 decreased by 65 yuan to 13535 yuan, with a 0.48% decrease. [18] - Inventory and Consumption Indicators: The commercial cotton inventory increased by 0.6985 million tons to 1.7202 million tons, with a 68.4% increase; the industrial cotton inventory decreased by 0.0362 million tons to 0.8093 million tons, with a 4.3% decrease. [18]
广发期货《农产品》日报-20251105
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-11-05 05:04