建信期货铁矿石日评-20251105

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current supply of iron ore has growth expectations, while demand continues to weaken under the pressure of downstream steel mills' profits. The overall fundamentals are weak, leading to a weak operation of ore prices. The current iron ore futures price fluctuates within the previous trading range, and it is necessary to observe whether there are signs of improvement in steel mills' profits and the support level of the lower edge of the previous trading range. Considering that the current rebar-iron ore ratio is at a historically low level, one can try the "long rebar, short iron ore" arbitrage strategy [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Market Review - On November 4, the main iron ore futures contract 2601 oscillated downward, opened lower, then oscillated and declined, and oscillated in the afternoon, closing at 775.5 yuan/ton, down 1.71% [7]. - The prices of major iron ore external quotes decreased by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major grade iron ores at Qingdao Port decreased by 5 - 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [8]. - The KDJ indicator of the daily chart of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to decline after forming a death cross yesterday; the red bar of the MACD indicator of the daily chart of the iron ore 2601 contract narrowed for two consecutive trading days [9]. 1.2 Future Outlook - Supply: The shipments from Australia and Brazil have rebounded, and the arrivals have significantly rebounded after two consecutive weeks of low levels. Considering that the cumulative shipments in the past four weeks were 109.784 million tons, a 3.78% increase compared with the same period last month, and as the end of the year approaches, it is expected that the subsequent shipment volume will remain at a relatively high level. It is expected that the arrival volume in November will oscillate at a relatively high level, showing a trend of being low in the first half and high in the second half. In addition, according to Rio Tinto, the first shipment of iron ore from Simandou in Guinea will be made in November. Although the short-term shipment volume is not high and the actual impact is limited, under the expectation of increased supply, the prices of far-month iron ore contracts may be suppressed [10][11]. - Demand: The current daily average pig iron output has continued to decline, and has been below 2.4 million tons for two consecutive weeks, with a significant decline recently. This is mainly due to the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, and more than half of the steel mills are in a loss - making state. It is expected that the pig iron output will continue to decline in the near future. In terms of the five major steel products, both the production and demand of steel have recovered, which deviates from the pig iron output data. It is necessary to observe the sustainability of the subsequent demand recovery. Considering the gradually cold weather, the demand for construction steel may be suppressed [11]. - Inventory: Currently, steel mills have returned to the state of replenishing inventory on demand, and the inventory available days are at a relatively low level of 20 - 21 days this year. The port inventory has continued to accumulate and has now increased to 145 million tons. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate slightly in the future [11]. 2. Industry News - According to Mysteel data, from October 27 to November 2, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.7436 million square meters, a 3% increase compared with the previous week and a 35.9% decrease compared with the same period last year. During the same period, the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing in 10 key cities was 2.1225 million square meters, a 5.9% decrease compared with the previous week and an 18.5% decrease compared with the same period last year [12]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the prices, trading volumes, and open interests of steel and iron ore futures contracts, the inventory and shipment data of iron ore, and the production and consumption data of steel products, with data sources from the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange websites, and Mysteel [5][8][15]