瑞达期货集运指数（欧线）期货日报-20251105

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Wednesday, the freight index (European line) futures prices rose collectively, with the main contract EC2512 up 4.08% and the far - month contracts up 1 - 4%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index decreased by 104 points from last week, a 7.9% MoM decline, weakening the freight rate support. Mainstream shipping companies issued price increase letters for November, and Maersk's successful price support in mid - to - late October boosted market confidence in the November price increase. The container handling business at Rotterdam Port has come to a complete standstill, increasing regional supply chain uncertainty. The positive results of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur improved market expectations for the trade war situation, driving up freight rates. The Middle East situation, especially the Israel - Palestine conflict, has postponed the expected resumption of Red Sea shipping. Germany's better - than - expected economic performance has boosted market confidence and stimulated the economic recovery in the eurozone. If Germany's proposed fiscal expansion policy has more detailed plans, it will enhance investors' confidence in the eurozone's medium - term growth. The freight rate market is currently affected by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Data - Futures Prices: The EC main contract closed at 1946.00, up 76.2; the EC secondary main contract closed at 1652, up 59.4. The EC2512 - EC2602 spread was 294.00, down 22.2; the EC2512 - EC2604 spread was 746.40, up 26.5. The EC contract basis was - 737.29, down 36.1 [1]. - Futures Positions: The EC main contract's open interest was 34072, up 3157 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - Freight Rate Indexes: The SCFIS (European line) was 1208.71, down 104; the SCFIS (US West Coast line) was 1107.32, up 159.83. The SCFI (composite index) was 1550.70, up 147.24. The CCFI (composite index) was 1021.39, up 28.65; the CCFI (European line) was 1323.81, up 30.69 [1]. - Other Indexes: The Baltic Dry Index was 1958.00, down 13; the Panama - type freight index was 1788.00, up 13. The average charter price of Panama - type ships was 17564.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Cape - type ships was 23368.00, up 854 [1]. 3.3 Industry News - Semiconductor Issue: The Dutch side is responsible for the supply disruption of wafers to Anshi (China) by Anshi (Netherlands), causing turmoil in the global semiconductor supply chain. China will safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises and stabilize the global semiconductor supply chain [1]. - China - Russia Cooperation: China and Russia will expand mutual investment, strengthen cooperation in traditional fields such as energy, inter - connectivity, agriculture, and aerospace, and explore cooperation potential in new industries like artificial intelligence, digital economy, and green development [1]. - US Government Shutdown: The US federal government has been in a "shutdown" for 35 days as the Senate failed to pass the temporary appropriation bill, tying the longest "shutdown" record in US history [1]. 3.4 Key Data to Watch - November 6th: Germany's seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate for September at 15:00; eurozone's retail sales monthly rate for September at 18:00; UK's central bank interest rate decision as of November 6th at 20:00; US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 1st (in ten thousand people) at 21:30 [1].