Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, under the influence of the continuous bearish expectation on the raw material side, there will still be an obvious price difference between private resources and Sinopec & PetroChina resources. Downstream buyers may still wait for price drops. It is expected that the inventory level of producers will continue to decline, while the inventory of traders may increase slightly [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased slightly. Some enterprises had production suspension or limitation arrangements due to external factors, which slightly dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. In the short - term, most enterprises will maintain the current production schedule. The resumption of production in overhauled enterprises will drive the increase in capacity utilization rate, and it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of enterprises will fluctuate slightly [2]. - The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9950 - 10500 in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 10235 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract was 28838, with a week - on - week decrease of 7032 [2]. - The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber was 90 yuan/ton, with no change; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2990 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 20 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies in different regions showed a downward trend. For example, the mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 10300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber was - 35 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil was 64.44 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 US dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil was 60.56 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 US dollars/barrel [2]. - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 740 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 576.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.88 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 820 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30 US dollars/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market was 7050 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 145 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.54 million tons/week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 67.06%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.44 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene was 32000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 7400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit was 52.3%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.26 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.04 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.53 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 66.95%, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.5 percentage points [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 421 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 625 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.09 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.23 million tons [2]. - The manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 27200 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1450 tons; the trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3680 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 840 tons [2]. - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.41%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.26 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.34%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.14 million pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 60.25 million pieces, with an increase of 2.19 million pieces compared with the previous period [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.01 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.33 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 44.82 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 30, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.61 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.15 percentage points [2]. - In October 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.76 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.72 million tons (5.52%) and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 71.39%, with an increase of 1.46 percentage points compared with the previous period and an increase of 10.93 percentage points compared with the same period last year. However, in recent times, the production and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber have slightly declined [2]. - As of October 30, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 3.09 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.23 million tons (6.90%) [2].
瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20251105
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-05 09:26