瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20251105

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - EB2512 fell and then rebounded, closing at 6321 yuan/ton. Last week, the production and capacity utilization of styrene decreased due to the shutdown and maintenance of some devices. The downstream operating rate mainly declined, and the consumption of downstream products such as EPS, PS, and ABS decreased slightly. Factory and port inventories decreased, but the inventory pressure remained high. The spot price of pure benzene and ethylene CFR Northeast Asia continued to be weak, the cost of non - integrated processes decreased, and the profit was repaired. This week, the impact of shutdown devices is expected to expand, and the production and capacity utilization of styrene are expected to continue to decline. Downstream devices have the expectation of increasing load, which may further deepen the short - term tight balance of styrene supply and demand, but the positive impact of supply - demand improvement is limited under high inventory pressure. The current integrated profit of styrene is close to the break - even line, indicating low valuation. Pay attention to the support of the lower Bollinger Band around 6214 for the daily K - line of EB2512 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 6321 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the trading volume was 389,583 lots, a decrease of 125,523 lots; the long position of the top 20 holders was 438,372 lots, a decrease of 2,383 lots; the net long position was - 26,139 lots, a decrease of 9,518 lots; the short position was 464,511 lots, an increase of 7,135 lots; the closing price of the January contract was 6358 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the open interest was 384,902 lots, a decrease of 16,126 lots; the total number of warehouse receipts was 0 lots [2] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of styrene was 6752 yuan/ton; the FOB South Korea intermediate price was 660 US dollars/ton; the CFR China intermediate price was 794 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 11 US dollars/ton; the mainstream prices in the Northeast, South, North, and East China regions were 6075 yuan/ton (a decrease of 100 yuan/ton), 6540 yuan/ton (a decrease of 65 yuan/ton), 6370 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton), and 6400 yuan/ton (a decrease of 60 yuan/ton) respectively [2] 3.3上游情况 - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 741 US dollars/ton; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 731 US dollars/ton; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 662 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton; the FD US Gulf price was 457 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton. The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 662.52 US dollars/ton; the FOB price in the US Gulf was 244 cents/gallon; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 675 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; the market prices in the South, East, and North China regions were 5450 yuan/ton, 5405 yuan/ton (a decrease of 15 yuan/ton), and 5230 yuan/ton respectively [2] 3.4产业情况 - The total styrene operating rate was 66.72%, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points; the national styrene inventory was 186,036 tons, a decrease of 10,231 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 179,300 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 109,800 tons, a decrease of 11,200 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 62.24% (an increase of 0.26 percentage points), 72.1% (a decrease of 0.7 percentage points), 52% (a decrease of 1.8 percentage points), 35% (an increase of 1 percentage point), and 66.71% (a decrease of 3.86 percentage points) respectively [2] 3.6行业消息 - From October 24th to 30th, China's styrene production decreased by 1.1% week - on - week to 323,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.53% week - on - week to 66.72%. The consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS decreased by 0.18% week - on - week to 271,500 tons. As of October 30th, the styrene factory inventory was 186,000 tons, a decrease of 5.21% week - on - week. As of November 3rd, the inventory in the East China port was 179,300 tons, a decrease of 7.10% week - on - week; the inventory in the South China port was 27,900 tons, a decrease of 10% week - on - week. From October 24th to 30th, the non - integrated cost of styrene decreased to 6,860.06 yuan/ton, and the profit of non - integrated devices was repaired to - 400 yuan/ton [2]