2025年11月资产配置报告：牛市歇脚，震荡整固

Macro Strategy Overview - The report indicates that the current bull market is experiencing a pause and is undergoing a phase of consolidation, with expectations of continued volatility in the near term [1][6]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to continue its interest rate cuts in December, with a high probability of a 25 basis point reduction, as inflation remains manageable and the job market shows signs of weakness [6][29]. - The economic performance in the first three quarters of 2025 has exceeded expectations, with GDP growth at 5.2%, but there are increasing pressures on domestic demand [6][43]. Overseas Economic Environment - Following the U.S.-China trade negotiations, tariffs on Chinese goods have been reduced by 10%, although ongoing tensions between the two countries are expected to persist [6][30]. - The overall impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation has been limited, with inflation expected to remain stable due to insufficient demand [6][20]. Domestic Economic Environment - Domestic consumption and investment are showing signs of decline, while external demand remains relatively strong, indicating a divergence in economic performance [6][43]. - The report highlights that the policy environment is expected to remain stable, with a focus on infrastructure investment to support economic growth [6][55]. A-Share Market Strategy - The A-share market is currently in a phase of consolidation, with a shift towards a more balanced investment style as external disturbances ease [7][12]. - The report suggests a cautious approach to investment in the A-share market, with a focus on sectors that are expected to benefit from technological innovation in the medium to long term [7][8]. Asset Allocation Insights - The report presents a neutral outlook for major asset classes, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks, indicating a shift from a relatively optimistic stance in previous reports [8]. - The recommendation is to adopt a balanced asset allocation strategy while remaining vigilant for opportunities in technology and other growth sectors [8][7].