沪铜产业日报-20251105

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where supply is converging and demand is gradually improving, with positive industry expectations and orderly inventory reduction. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 85,670 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; LME 3 - month copper was 10,652 dollars/ton, down 11.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was - 20 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper was 217,024 lots, down 10,525 lots. The futures' top 20 open interest of Shanghai copper was - 27,120 lots, down 1,478 lots. LME copper inventory was 133,900 tons, up 300 tons. The SHFE inventory of cathode copper was 116,140 tons, up 11,348 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 10,925 tons, down 200 tons. The SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 42,561 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 85,335 yuan/ton, down 1,255 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 85,430 yuan/ton, down 1,215 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) was 52 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium was 34 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CU main contract basis was - 335 yuan/ton, down 1,185 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 spread was - 17.2 dollars/ton, down. The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5869 million tons, down. The domestic copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) was - 30.45 dollars/kiloton, up 0.55 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi was 75,720 yuan/metal ton, down 1,200 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 76,420 yuan/metal ton, down 1,200 yuan. The rough copper processing fee in the south was 1,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; in the north, it was 900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. 产业情况 - The refined copper output was 1.266 million tons, down 35,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The social copper inventory was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 59,190 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 72,750 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 下游及应用 - The copper product output was 2.232 million tons, up 10,000 tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment was 437.807 billion yuan, up 58.231 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment was 6,770.571 billion yuan, up 739.652 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,371,236,100 pieces, up 120,949,000 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 23.66%. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility was 15.6%, down 0.0216%. The at - the - money option call - put ratio was - 0.13, down. The 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 19.39%, up 0.0007%. The at - the - money option call - put ratio was 1.28, up 0.0007 [2]. Industry News - In October, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.61 million, a 16% year - on - year increase and a 7% month - on - month increase. Tesla China's shipments were 61,497, a 9.9% year - on - year decline and a 32.3% month - on - month decline. The US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again, and the government "shutdown" entered the 35th day. The central bank's net investment in open - market treasury bond trading was 20 billion yuan, and it announced a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation on November 5. Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, emphasizing expanding mutual investment and cooperation in various fields [2]