农产品早报-20251106

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an agricultural product morning report released by the agricultural product team of the research center on November 6, 2025, covering the market conditions of corn/starch, sugar, cotton/cotton yarn, eggs, apples, and pigs [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Market Data - From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the prices in Changchun, Jinzhou, Weifang, and Shekou showed different trends, and the basis fluctuated, with a change of 1; the trade profit was 0, and the import profit and loss changed by 15. For starch, the prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained unchanged, the basis decreased by 7, and the processing profit decreased by 4 [2] Core Viewpoint - Short - term: Corn prices are under pressure due to the concentrated listing of grain sources, and starch prices are also under pressure due to high inventory. Medium - long term: After the first peak of grain sales, the game between farmers and traders will affect corn prices, and downstream consumption rhythm will be the key factor for starch prices [3] Group 3: Sugar Market Data - From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming decreased, the Liuzhou basis changed by 30, the import profits from Thailand and Brazil changed by 24 and 23 respectively, and the Zhengzhou Futures market decreased by 10 [4][5] Core Viewpoint - Internationally, Brazilian supply pressure weighs on sugar prices, and the narrowing of the sugar - alcohol price difference reduces the sugar - making ratio. Domestically, short - term Zhengzhou sugar is stronger than the external market, and the domestic sugar cost is an important support. In the medium - long term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the domestic sugar cost may be broken through [6] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Market Data - From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 15, the import profit of cotton yarn changed, the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 142, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 16, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 16 [7] Core Viewpoint - Cotton prices are in a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. If there are no major macro - risk events, the April low may be the long - term bottom, and the downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to changes in the demand side [9] Group 5: Eggs Market Data - From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, and Hubei showed different trends, the basis decreased by 87, and the prices of substitute products such as white - feather broilers, yellow - feather broilers, and pigs changed to different extents, with the pig price increasing by 0.17 [13] Core Viewpoint - Supply - side pressure is partially relieved by orderly chicken culling and a decrease in new egg - laying hens. Demand - side, cooler weather allows for longer egg storage, and some traders start to build inventory. The elimination process has not accelerated significantly, and future attention should be paid to the change in the elimination rhythm [12][13] Group 6: Apples Market Data - From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8000 yuan, and the basis for January, May, and October decreased to different extents [15][16] Core Viewpoint - New - season late - maturing Fuji apples are gradually on the market. The start - of - harvest price in Shandong is higher than last year due to rainfall. The national output has decreased, and the quality in some areas is poor. The short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate upward [16] Group 7: Pigs Market Data - From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong decreased, and the basis decreased by 360 [16] Core Viewpoint - Weekend spot prices weakened, second - fattening replenishment slowed down after price increases, and slaughterhouse losses led to a decline in slaughter volume. Short - term rebounds are stimulated by low prices, but medium - term supply pressure remains due to insufficient capacity reduction. The process of capacity and inventory reduction is the key driver of the market, and attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [16]