原油成品油早报-20251106

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, crude oil prices remained volatile. Oil prices rose on Friday due to reports of a potential US military attack on Venezuela, and OPEC+ confirmed a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December. - Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories slightly increased, while floating storage inventories slightly decreased. US commercial crude inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels due to a significant decline in net crude imports, and gasoline and diesel inventories also decreased. European and American refinery profits rebounded this week. - Short - term geopolitical risks have resurfaced, but the pressure on crude oil supply release is high. With the commissioning of Brazil's P78, further production increases by OPEC, and the US maintaining high total production, crude oil is expected to remain in a weak pattern [6]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Daily News - Russia's Tuapse refinery stopped fuel exports after a drone attack on November 2nd [3]. - HSBC expects a supply surplus of 2.7 million barrels per day in Q1 2026 (previously 3 million barrels per day) and an average annual supply surplus of 2.1 million barrels per day in 2026 (previously 2.4 million barrels per day) [3]. - Libya's oil minister aims to increase oil production to 2 million barrels per day in the next five years, with a target of 1.6 million barrels per day next year and 1.8 million barrels per day the year after [4]. - Saudi Aramco set the official selling price for Arab Light crude oil in December, with a premium of $1 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai crude oil average for Asia, $3.20 per barrel over the Argus Sour Crude Index for the US, and $1.35 per barrel over the Brent crude oil settlement price for Northwest Europe [4]. b. Inventory - US EIA data for the week ending October 31st: Crude oil exports increased by 600,000 barrels per day to 4.367 million barrels per day; domestic crude production increased by 700,000 barrels to 13.651 million barrels per day; commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 5.202 million barrels to 421 million barrels (a 1.25% increase); the four - week average supply of refined oil products was 20.344 million barrels per day, a 1.15% decrease from the same period last year; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 498,000 barrels to 409.6 million barrels (a 0.12% increase); crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.924 million barrels per day, an increase of 873,000 barrels per day from the previous week; Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventories were 30,000 barrels (previous value: 133,400 barrels); gasoline inventories decreased by 4.729 million barrels (expected: - 1.14 million barrels, previous value: - 5.941 million barrels); refined oil inventories decreased by 643,000 barrels (expected: - 1.969 million barrels, previous value: - 3.362 million barrels) [4][5]. - As of the week ending November 5th, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 851,000 barrels to 18.607 million barrels. Light distillate inventories decreased by 1.236 million barrels to 6.713 million barrels, medium distillate inventories decreased by 79,000 barrels to 3.234 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories increased by 2.166 million barrels to 8.66 million barrels [5]. - From October 23rd - 30th, the operating rate of domestic major refineries decreased, while that of local refineries slightly increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated, with local refinery gasoline inventories increasing and diesel inventories decreasing. The profits of both major and local refineries decreased [5]. c. Weekly View - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. Short - term geopolitical risks have resurfaced, but the pressure on crude oil supply release is high. With the commissioning of Brazil's P78, further production increases by OPEC, and the US maintaining high total production, crude oil is expected to remain in a weak pattern [6]. - According to data, from October 1st - 26th, Russia's average daily seaborne oil product exports were 1.89 million barrels. Kpler's preliminary data shows that Russia's average daily seaborne crude oil exports in October were 5.198 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 460,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 321,000 barrels per day [6].