PTA、MEG早报-20251106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: The spot market negotiation atmosphere is relatively dull, mainly among traders, with few actions from polyester factories. The spot basis fluctuates within a range, and the market sentiment is cautious. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - MEG: This week, the arrival of foreign - sourced vessels is concentrated, and the supply of imports this month is abundant. The inventory of subsequent trade circulation will be replenished. Fundamentally, the expectation of long - term supply surplus persists, and the market sentiment is under pressure. It is expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will weaken in the near future. Attention should be paid to cost and device changes [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1前日回顾 No relevant content provided. 3.2每日提示 - PTA - Fundamentals: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market improved slightly compared with the previous day. The spot basis was weak, and the buying from traders increased. The negotiation was mainly among traders during the day, with sporadic bids from polyester factories. The mainstream for next week was negotiated and traded at a discount of 75 - 80 to the 01 contract, and the price negotiation range was around 4470 - 4540. There were transactions at a discount of 70 - 75 to the 01 contract for mid - November. The mainstream spot basis today was 01 - 77. A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China stopped, and the restart time is undetermined. A new 3 - million - ton PTA device was put into production in mid - October and is currently operating normally [6]. - Basis: The spot price was 4510, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 90, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of PTA factories was 4.03 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared with the previous period, indicating a bullish situation [6]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish situation [6]. - Main positions: The net short position decreased, showing a bearish situation [6]. - MEG - Fundamentals: On Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol moderately increased at a low level, and the market negotiation was average. The ethylene glycol opened lower and consolidated at night. The spot negotiation was around a premium of 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. During the day, the ethylene glycol market rose slightly, and the spot basis strengthened to a premium of 73 - 74 yuan/ton to the 01 contract in the afternoon. The trading of near - term goods was the main activity. In terms of US dollars, the center of the external ethylene glycol market strengthened slightly at a low level. The cargo arriving at the port next week was traded at around 466 US dollars/ton in the morning, and then the negotiation of near - term cargo rebounded to around 469 - 472 US dollars/ton. The buying sentiment at low levels improved [8]. - Basis: The spot price was 3982, and the basis of the 01 contract was 68, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 498,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared with the previous period, indicating a bearish situation [9]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [9]. - Main positions: The net short position decreased, showing a bearish situation [9]. 3.3今日关注 No relevant content provided. 3.4基本面数据 - PTA supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand and the inventory - consumption ratio [13]. - Ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand and the inventory - consumption ratio [14]. 3.5影响因素总结 - Positive factors: A new 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China was put into production last weekend and has started to produce [10]. - Negative factors: The 3.6 - million - ton production capacity of Yisheng New Materials reached full load, and the production capacities of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton devices increased [11]. 3.6当前主要逻辑和风险点 Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored when the market rebounds [12].