大越期货尿素早报-20251106

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report - Report Date: November 6, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are falling from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. However, the domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. - The positive factors include strong international prices and the rebound of agricultural demand, while the negative factor is the domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in international prices and the marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, and comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. The domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1570 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -63, and the premium/discount ratio is -4.0%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.664 million tons (-176,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The industrial demand is weak, the agricultural demand is rebounding, the international urea price is strong, and the export volume has increased. However, the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The spot price of the delivery product is 1570, with no change; the Shandong spot price is 1580 (+10); the Henan spot price is 1570, with no change; the FOB China price is 2691 [6]. | | Futures Market | The price of the 01 contract is 1633 (+3), the basis is -63 (-3); the price of the UR05 contract is 1715 (+5); the price of the UR09 contract is 1739 (-1) [6]. | | Inventory | The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.664 million tons (-176,000 tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.554 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 110,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]