大越期货玻璃早报-20251106

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period, with increasing disturbances on the supply side recently. However, the recovery of terminal demand is weak. It is expected that the glass will mainly move in a volatile manner [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1,105 yuan/ton to 1,097 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.72%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large plates remained unchanged at 1,048 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased from -57 yuan/ton to -49 yuan/ton, a change of -14.04% [8]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large plates in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1,048 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [13]. Fundamental - Cost Side - Not provided in the content Fundamental - Production - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 226, with an operating rate of 76.35%, at a historically low level for the same period. The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 161,300 tons, at the lowest level in the same period of history and showing a stable upward trend [24][26]. Fundamental - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons [30]. Fundamental - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 65.79 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.24% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [45]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [46]. Influencing Factors Summary - Positive factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. Some production lines in the Shahe area are undergoing "coal - to - gas" conversion, increasing supply - side disturbances [5]. - Negative factors: The terminal demand in the real estate sector remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the inventory of raw glass [6].