沪锌期货早报-20251106

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The world zinc market shows a supply shortage in 2025. From January to August, the global zinc plate supply shortage was 281,300 tons, and in August, it was 21,000 tons. The outlook for SHFE zinc ZN2512 is oscillating with a slight upward bias [2]. - On November 5, the previous trading day, SHFE zinc showed an oscillating upward trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average pointing upwards. The short - term view is that the market may experience oscillating consolidation, but overall, SHFE zinc ZN2512 is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [2][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Market Fundamentals - Supply and demand: In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons, consumption was 1.1717 million tons, with a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, production was 9.0885 million tons, consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August, it was 8.4457 million tons [2]. - Basis: The spot price was 22,580, and the basis was - 70, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - Inventory: On November 5, LME zinc inventory increased by 175 tons to 34,000 tons compared to the previous day, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 226 tons to 68,423 tons compared to the previous day [2]. - Market trends: The previous day, SHFE zinc showed an oscillating upward trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average pointing upwards [2]. - Main positions: The main players held a net short position, and short positions increased [2]. 3.2 Zinc Futures Market Conditions on November 5 - Futures exchange: The trading volume of zinc futures on November 5 was 151,857 lots, with a turnover of 17.1761834 billion yuan, and the open interest was 223,198 lots, a decrease of 2,616 lots [3]. - Spot market: The price of domestic 0 zinc on November 5 varied by region. In Shanghai, it was 22,530 - 22,630 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, 22,380 - 22,480 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, 22,515 - 22,615 yuan/ton; and in Zhejiang, 22,505 - 22,605 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Zinc Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Information - National zinc ingot inventory: From October 23 to November 3, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets decreased from 163,500 tons to 162,300 tons [5]. - Futures exchange zinc warehouse receipts: On November 5, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 68,423 tons, an increase of 226 tons compared to the previous day [2][6]. - LME zinc inventory: On November 5, LME zinc inventory increased by 175 tons to 34,000 tons compared to the previous day, with registered warrants at 29,700 tons and cancelled warrants at 4,300 tons, accounting for 12.66% [8]. 3.4 Zinc Refined Production and Processing Fees - Domestic refined zinc production: In September 2025, the production of refined zinc was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The capacity utilization rate was 74.80%. The planned production for October was 509,600 tons [15]. - Zinc concentrate processing fees: On November 5, the handling charges for zinc concentrates varied by region. For example, in Huludao, for 50% grade, the handling charge was 3,100 - 3,300 yuan/metal ton, with a reference price of 3,200 yuan/metal ton [17]. 3.5 Futures Company Transactions and Positions - Trading volume: For the zn2512 contract on November 5, the total trading volume of member futures companies was 156,365 lots, a decrease of 67,514 lots compared to the previous day. The top three in trading volume were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and Guotai Junan Futures [18]. - Long positions: The total long positions of member futures companies were 77,848 lots, a decrease of 1,572 lots compared to the previous day. CITIC Futures had the largest long position [18]. - Short positions: The total short positions of member futures companies were 76,343 lots, a decrease of 1,219 lots compared to the previous day. CITIC Futures had the largest short position [18].