大越期货油脂早报-20251106

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil and fat supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic is centered around the relatively loose global oil and fat fundamentals, with the main risk being El Nino weather [5] 3. Summary by Related Contents Daily Viewpoints - Soybean Oil: The MPOB report for August shows that Malaysian palm oil production decreased 9.8% to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and end - of - month inventory decreased 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. Ship - surveying agencies indicate a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil exports this month. Entering the production - reduction season, palm oil supply pressure will decrease. The basis is 102 with the spot price at 8240, indicating the spot price is higher than the futures price. On September 22, the commercial inventory was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% year - on - year. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. The short positions of the main contract have decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [2] - Palm Oil: Similar MPOB report data as soybean oil. Entering the production - increase season, palm oil supply will increase. The basis is 40 with the spot price at 8630. On September 22, the port inventory was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and down 34.1% year - on - year. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. The short positions of the main contract have decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [3] - Rapeseed Oil: Also based on the same MPOB report. Entering the production - increase season, palm oil supply will increase. The basis is 323 with the spot price at 9730. On September 22, the commercial inventory was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% year - on - year. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. The long positions of the main contract have decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9600 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - 利空: Oil and fat prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] Supply - Related - Items include soybean oil inventory [6], soybean meal inventory [8], oil mill soybean crushing [10], palm oil inventory [17], rapeseed oil inventory [19], rapeseed inventory [21], and domestic total oil and fat inventory [23] Demand - Related - Items include soybean oil apparent consumption [12] and soybean meal apparent consumption [14]