白糖早报-20251106

Report Overview - Report Date: November 6, 2025 - Report Title: Sugar Morning Report - Report Source: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar shows a relatively resistant decline compared to the continuous decline of foreign sugar, but the long - term divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. The main 01 contract is under pressure and falls back near 5500, with a short - term volatile and bearish outlook [4][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a 277 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market, while ISO expected a supply gap of 23.1 million tons, significantly reduced from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 million tons, with cumulative sales of 1000 million tons and a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons, and 15.14 million tons of syrup and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 13.51 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5720, with a basis of 279 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [4]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, but the overall position of the main force is still bearish [4]. - Expectations: The short - term view is volatile and bearish, as the long - term divergence between domestic and foreign sugar trends is expected to end [4][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply - demand Forecast: Different institutions have varying forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. ISO expects a supply gap of about 20 million tons (nearly balanced), StoneX predicts a 277 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow forecasts a surplus of 620 - 750 million tons, Datagro anticipates a 153 - million - ton surplus, Covrig Analytics projects a 420 - million - ton surplus, and Alvean/Louis Dreyfus and Green Pool predict surpluses of 40 million tons and 115 million tons respectively [35]. - China's Sugar Supply - demand Balance: In the 2025/26 season, China's sugar production is expected to be 1120 million tons, imports are estimated at 500 million tons, and consumption is projected to be 1590 million tons, with a balance change of 12 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to range from 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is forecasted to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. - Import Cost: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported raw sugar after processing and tax payment (50% tariff) was about 5086 yuan per ton, with significant import profits due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices [43]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.