天胶早报-20251106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, spot being strong, domestic inventory starting to decrease, and tire operating rate at a high level. The basis is -500 (spot price is 14350), which is bearish. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao has increased week - on - week and year - on - year, showing a neutral situation. The price is running below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. The main net position is short, and the short position is decreasing, also bearish. The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals Data - Supply and Demand: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high [4][6]. - Inventory: The inventory of the exchange has been continuously decreasing, while the inventory in Qingdao has been increasing [4][14]. - Spot Price: The spot price of 2023 whole latex (non - deliverable) fell on November 5th, and the basis weakened on November 5th [8][35]. - Import: The import volume has rebounded [20]. - Downstream Consumption: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are at a record high for the same period [23][29][32]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors - Likely to Rise Factors: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - Likely to Fall Factors: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6].