沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251106

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - For Shanghai Nickel 2512, it is expected to operate in a volatile and weak manner, testing cost support [2] - For Stainless Steel 2512, it is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Nickel - Fundamentals: The external market continues to decline. Nickel ore prices are firm, the Philippine rainy season is approaching, tender prices are firm, and shipping costs are stable. Nickel iron prices continue to fall, and the cost line loosens and moves down. Stainless steel inventories rise slightly. Primary nickel accumulates inventory both at home and abroad. New energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the overall boost is limited. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [2] - Basis: The spot price is 120,950, and the basis is 920, indicating a bullish signal [2] - Inventory: LME inventory is 253,128 (+378), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 32,929 (+1,977), indicating a bearish signal [2] - Market: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish signal [2] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [2] Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The spot stainless steel price remains flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, shipping costs are stable, nickel iron prices fall, the cost line loosens further, and stainless steel inventories rise slightly [4] - Basis: The average stainless steel price is 13,700, and the basis is 1,165, indicating a bullish signal [4] - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts are 73,300 (unchanged), indicating a neutral signal [4] - Market: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish signal [4] Price and Inventory Data - Nickel and Stainless Steel Prices: On November 5, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,030 (up 330 from the previous day), the LME nickel was 15,015 (down 45), the stainless steel main contract was 12,535 (down 10). Spot prices of various nickel products and stainless steel cold - rolled coils mostly declined [11] - Nickel Inventory: As of October 31, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 36,751 tons, with futures inventory at 31,388 tons, an increase of 676 tons and 4,578 tons respectively. On November 5, LME inventory was 253,128 (up 378), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 32,929 (up 1,977) [13][14] - Stainless Steel Inventory: On October 31, the Wuxi inventory was 598,700 tons, the Foshan inventory was 306,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,031,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,700 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 651,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,600 tons. On November 5, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 73,300 (unchanged) [19][20] Cost - related Data - Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices: On November 5, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 58 US dollars/wet ton, and (Ni0.9%) was 30 US dollars/wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. Shipping costs from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained stable. High - nickel wet - ton prices were 920 yuan/nickel point (down 2), and low - nickel wet - ton prices were 3,050 yuan/ton (unchanged) [23] - Stainless Steel Production Cost: The traditional cost was 12,765, the scrap steel production cost was 12,893, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel cost was 16,538 [25] - Nickel Import Cost: The converted import price was 120,425 yuan/ton [28] Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: The firm ore price provides cost support [6] - Negative Factors: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [6]