大越期货菜粕早报-20251106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 oscillates in the range of 2500 - 2560. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. Affected by soybean meal, the market will maintain range - bound oscillations in the short term. The market is expected to remain volatile due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of improved China - Canada trade relations [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in the 2500 - 2560 range. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows a premium over futures, which is bullish; the inventory is decreasing week - on - week and year - on - year, which is bullish; the price is above the 20 - day moving average and rising, which is bullish; the main long positions are decreasing but funds are flowing in, which is bullish. The market is expected to remain volatile [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term. The demand is decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term export expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports. The main logic of the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From October 28 to November 5, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3017 - 3092 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 5.35 - 15.08 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2500 - 2640 yuan/ton, and there was little trading volume. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract rebounded from a low level. Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a slight fluctuation in the spot premium. The import volume of rapeseed in October remained stable, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory was at a low level. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remained low. Aquatic fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][17][19]. 3.5 Position Data - No specific position data analysis other than the fact that the main long positions of rapeseed meal decreased and funds were flowing in [9].