《特殊商品》日报-20251106

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Dark-colored rubber shows an inventory accumulation inflection point, and with weak macro sentiment, rubber prices have further declined. Future focus should be on raw material output during the peak production season in the main producing areas and macro changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if not, the rubber price is expected to fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Directory - Spot Prices and Basis: On November 5, prices of various natural rubber products showed different trends, with some decreasing and others remaining stable. For example, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 250 yuan to 14,350 yuan, a decrease of 1.71% [1]. - Inter - monthly Spreads: The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5 yuan to 150 yuan, a decrease of 3.23% [1]. - Fundamental Data: In August, production in Thailand, Indonesia, and other countries changed, with Thailand's production decreasing by 5.45% to 451.50. Tire production and export data also showed fluctuations. For example, domestic tire production in August increased by 9.10% to 10,295.40 million pieces [1]. - Inventory Changes: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber increased, while the出库 rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao decreased [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Soda Ash: The price of soda ash is trending weakly. There is obvious over - supply, and the market is under pressure. In the medium - term, demand will continue to be based on rigid needs, and the market will face further pressure without actual capacity withdrawal or load reduction. It is advisable to take a bearish approach in operation [3]. - Glass: The news of production line shutdown in Shahe area has a short - term emotional impact on the market. In the long - term, there will be production line restart, which will increase supply pressure. Although there is some demand expectation during the peak season, the glass industry still needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. There is short - term support for the market, and short - term long opportunities for low - level rebounds can be captured [3]. Summary by Directory - Glass - related Prices and Spreads: On November 5, glass prices in different regions showed little change, with only the South China quotation decreasing by 10 yuan to 1,190 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.83%. The 01 basis increased by 8 yuan to 33 yuan, an increase of 32.00% [3]. - Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads: Soda ash prices in different regions remained stable, and the 01 - 4 spread decreased by 6 yuan to 105 yuan, a decrease of 5.41% [3]. - Supply: Soda ash production and float glass and photovoltaic glass melting volume data showed different trends. Soda ash production decreased slightly, and photovoltaic glass melting volume decreased by 0.84% [3]. - Inventory: Glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased, while soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased [3]. - Real Estate Data: Real estate data showed negative growth in new construction area, completion area, and sales area, with the sales area decreasing by 6.50% [3]. Group 3: Log Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The log futures market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Although the disk price is at a relatively low level and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets provides some support, the market is still expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. Summary by Directory - Futures and Spot Prices: On November 5, log futures prices showed an upward trend. For example, the price of the log 2511 contract increased by 2 yuan to 778.5 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.26%. Spot prices of some radiata pine and spruce in ports remained stable [4]. - Import Cost Calculation: The import theoretical cost increased by 6.84 yuan to 812.97 yuan, an increase of 1% [4]. - Supply and Demand: Supply is increasing, with the expected arrival of 17 ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports from November 3 - 9, an increase of 2 ships and 16% in volume compared to the previous week. Demand is slightly declining, with the average daily log出库 volume decreasing by 0.16 million cubic meters to 6.28 million cubic meters as of October 31 [4]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Although there are expectations of supply contraction, it is expected to have little short - term impact. The market still faces inventory accumulation pressure in November, but there is cost support at the bottom. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan per ton. If the price drops to around 8,500 yuan per ton, long positions can be considered [5]. Summary by Directory - Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis: On November 5, spot prices of various industrial silicon products remained stable, and the basis of different benchmarks changed. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon decreased by 135 yuan to 430 yuan, a decrease of 23.89% [5]. - Inter - monthly Spreads: Spreads between different contracts changed. For example, the 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 25 yuan to - 400 yuan, an increase of 6.25% [5]. - Fundamental Data: National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and production in different regions also showed different trends. For example, Xinjiang's production increased by 15.94% to 23.56 million tons [5]. - Inventory Changes: Inventory in different regions and types showed different trends. For example, Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.05 million tons to 3.46 million tons, an increase of 1.47% [5]. Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In November, the supply pressure is decreasing, but the demand is also decreasing, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. There is still a risk of inventory accumulation. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in a high - level range. In trading, it is advisable to try long positions when the futures price returns to the lower end of the range, sell put options around 50,000 in the options market, and hold photovoltaic ETFs, new energy ETFs, or related stocks in the equity market [6]. Summary by Directory - Spot Prices and Basis: On November 5, spot prices of N - type polysilicon products were mostly stable, and the N - type material basis increased by 360 yuan to - 1,155 yuan, an increase of 23.76% [6]. - Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads: The futures price decreased by 360 yuan to 53,355 yuan per ton, and the spreads between different contracts changed significantly [6]. - Fundamental Data: Weekly and monthly polysilicon and silicon wafer production, import, and export data showed different trends. For example, weekly polysilicon production decreased by 4.41% to 2.82 million tons, while monthly production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons [6]. - Inventory Changes: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased, and the polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 140 to 9,730 [6].