大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251106

Report Title - Polyolefin Morning Report [2] Report Date - November 6, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report Core Viewpoints - The market for LLDPE and PP is expected to be volatile and weak today. For LLDPE, the fundamentals are generally neutral, with a supply - demand imbalance, and the industry inventory is moderately high. For PP, the fundamentals are also neutral, with an oversupply situation. Although there are factors such as the rebound of crude oil prices due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the easing of Sino - US relations, the overall market trend remains under pressure [4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. The demand in the agricultural film peak season continues, with high - level operations, while the restocking of other film types is gradually ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6830 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 16, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.2%, which is neutral [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 540,000 tons (+74,000), which is bearish [4] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4] - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. With an oversupply in fundamentals, the Sino - US meeting in Busan, and the escalation of sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, the industry inventory is moderately high [4] - Likely Factors: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices, and the Sino - US meeting reaches a phased easing [5] - Negative Factors: The demand is weaker year - on - year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6500 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 9, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [6] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), which is bearish [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. With an oversupply in fundamentals, the Sino - US meeting in Busan, and the escalation of sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, the industry inventory is moderately high [6] - Likely Factors: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices, and the Sino - US meeting reaches a phased easing [7] - Negative Factors: The demand is weaker year - on - year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of delivery products is 6830 (-50), the price of the 01 contract is 6814 (-65), the basis is 16, the import price in US dollars is 813 (unchanged), the import - converted price is 7124 (-1), and the import price difference is -294 (-49). The warehouse receipt is 12,669 (-6), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 540,000 tons (+74,000), and the social inventory is 510,000 tons (-18,000) [8] - PP: The spot price of delivery products is 6500 (-50), the price of the 01 contract is 6491 (-69), the basis is 9, the import price in US dollars is 785 (unchanged), the import - converted price is 6884 (-1), and the import price difference is -384 (-49). The warehouse receipt is 14,629 (+60), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), and the social inventory is 333,000 tons (+13,000) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different trends. The production capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 20.5% [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also changed. The production capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 11.0% [15]