工业硅期货早报-20251106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side has reduced production, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8920 - 9120 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production scheduling continues to decrease, overall demand shows continuous decline, cost support remains stable, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52550 - 54160 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply - side: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 100,000 tons, a 0.99% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Demand - side: Last week, the demand was 87,000 tons, a 7.44% decrease from the previous week, and demand remains sluggish. Polysilicon inventory is 2.61 million tons, with silicon wafers, battery cells in loss, and components in a neutral profit state. Organic silicon inventory is 56,300 tons (low), with a production profit of - 520 yuan/ton (in loss), and a comprehensive开工 rate of 68.56% (unchanged from the previous week, lower than the historical average). Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 735,000 tons (high), with an import loss of 327 yuan/ton [6]. - Cost - side: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 3144 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On November 5th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 280 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 558,000 tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 168,100 tons, a 0.24% increase; major port inventory is 124,000 tons, a 0.81% increase [6]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closes above MA20 [6]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions are decreasing [6]. - Expectation: Supply - side production scheduling decreases, demand recovery is at a low level, cost is near the historical average, and cost support has increased. Industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8920 - 9120 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply - side: Last week, the polysilicon output was 28,200 tons, a 4.40% decrease from the previous week. The production scheduling for November is expected to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand - side: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 14.24GW, a 3.32% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 189,300 tons, a 2.49% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in loss. In November, the production scheduling is 57.66GW, a 4.92% decrease from the previous month. In October, the battery cell output was 59.27GW, a 2.78% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the battery cell export factory inventory was 3.85GW, a 36.04% decrease. Currently, battery cell production is in loss. In November, the production scheduling is 58.68GW, a 0.99% decrease. In October, the component output was 48.1GW, a 3.60% decrease from the previous month. In November, the expected component output is 46.92GW, a 2.45% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease; the European monthly inventory is 28.1GW, a 5.70% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [8]. - Cost - side: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,760 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,240 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On November 5th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1155 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 261,000 tons, a 1.16% increase from the previous week, at a neutral level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closes above MA20 [8]. - Main positions: The main positions are net long, and long positions are decreasing [8]. - Expectation: Supply - side production scheduling continues to decrease, demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components continues to decline, overall demand shows continuous decline, cost support remains stable, and polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52550 - 54160 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of some contracts have increased, such as the 01 contract price rising from 8885 to 9020, a 1.52% increase [15]. - The spot prices of different types of industrial silicon in East China remain mostly unchanged [15]. - The inventory of some regions and ports has changed, with social inventory decreasing slightly, and sample enterprise and major port inventories increasing [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of some contracts have decreased, such as the 01 contract price dropping from 53715 to 53355, a 0.67% decrease [17]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remain mostly unchanged [17]. - The weekly total inventory is 261,000 tons, a 1.16% increase from the previous week [17]. 3.3 Other Aspects - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: The report presents the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon and the price spread between 421 and 553 [20]. - Inventory: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory, including delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprise inventories [25]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon production, capacity utilization, and monthly production by specification [28][29]. - Cost: It shows the historical cost - profit trends of industrial silicon in sample regions [35]. - Supply - Demand Balance: It presents the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon and polysilicon [37][40][64]. - Downstream Trends: It details the price, production, inventory, and supply - demand balance trends of industrial silicon's downstream industries, including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [43][51][61].