大越期货沥青期货早报-20251106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, with refineries increasing production recently, which is expected to further increase supply pressure next week. The planned total production of asphalt from local refineries in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.3174%, a month - on - month increase of 0.239 percentage points [7]. - The overall demand for asphalt is lower than the historical average. The construction of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes is all below the historical average, although there are slight increases in some areas [7]. - The cost of asphalt is supported by the strengthening of crude oil. The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 594.72 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 594.5071 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13.47% [7]. - The inventory of asphalt is decreasing. The social inventory is 937,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.76%; the in - plant inventory is 685,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%; and the port diluted asphalt inventory is 200,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.33% [7]. - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The price of asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3143 - 3189 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: The supply pressure is high, the demand recovery is weak, and the cost is supported by high - level crude oil. The overall fundamentals are considered slightly positive [7]. - Likely factors: High - level crude oil costs provide some support [10]. - Negative factors: High - priced asphalt has insufficient demand, and the overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11]. - Main logic: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of various asphalt contracts, such as the 01 - 09 contracts, have declined to varying degrees compared to the previous values. For example, the 01 contract price is 3166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan or 0.85% from the previous value [15]. - The basis of the 01 contract is - 26 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [7]. - The inventory shows a downward trend, including social inventory, in - plant inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory [7][15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt bases from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main contract spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for spread trading analysis [20][21]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the price relationship between asphalt and crude oil [23][24]. - Crude oil cracking spread: The report presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt refining [26][27][28]. - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025, providing a reference for relative value analysis [30][32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the price changes in the local asphalt market [33][34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profits from 2019 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [36][37]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: The report presents the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [39][40][41]. - Supply - side analysis: - Shipment volume: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the supply situation [42][43]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: The report presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025, helping to understand the inventory situation of raw materials [44][45]. - Production volume: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the overall supply capacity [47][48]. - Marr crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend: The report presents the historical trends of the Marr crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [50][52]. - Local refinery asphalt production: The report shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the production capacity of local refineries [53][54]. - 开工率: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly asphalt production capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the production activity of the industry [56][57]. - Maintenance loss volume estimate: The report shows the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025, helping to understand the impact of equipment maintenance on supply [58][59]. - Inventory analysis: - Exchange warehouse receipts: The report presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the inventory situation in the futures market [61][62][64]. - Social inventory and in - plant inventory: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025, helping to understand the overall inventory situation [65][66]. - In - plant inventory inventory ratio: The report presents the historical trends of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the inventory management of enterprises [68][69]. - Import and export situation: - The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the impact of international trade on the domestic asphalt market [71][72][75]. - Demand - side analysis: - Petroleum coke production: The report shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the demand for related products in the asphalt industry [77][78]. - Apparent consumption: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the overall market demand [80][81]. - Downstream demand: - The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the impact of infrastructure construction on asphalt demand [83][84][85]. - The report presents the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the demand for asphalt in the construction machinery field [87][88][91]. - Asphalt construction rate: - The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt construction rates from 2019 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the demand for asphalt in different application scenarios [92][93][96]. - Downstream construction situation: - The report presents the historical trends of the construction rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the demand for asphalt in the downstream industries [97][98][100]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The report provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, inventory, and downstream demand, which is useful for comprehensively analyzing the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [102][103].