大越期货豆粕早报-20251106

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 3040 - 3100. The market awaits progress on China's soybean purchases from the US and technical consolidation. The short - term outlook is neutral, with the price affected by factors such as US soybean trends, demand seasonality, and inventory levels [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate between 4080 - 4180. Influenced by US soybean trends, import volume, and domestic production expectations, the short - term outlook is also neutral [11]. - The short - term trend of soybean meal is affected by the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, US soybean harvest weather, and domestic demand. It is expected to remain range - bound [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is expected to be strongly volatile above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will decline in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills will also decrease from the high level. Soybean meal is expected to return to range - bound trading [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing price expectations [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Affected by potential weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, soybean meal is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the short term [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Likely Positive Factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Likely Negative Factors: High total arrival volume of imported soybeans in November, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest [14]. Soybeans - Likely Positive Factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Likely Negative Factors: A bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese purchases, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From October 28 to November 5, the average transaction price and volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed small - scale changes [16]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices: From October 28 to November 5, the prices of soybean and meal futures and spot markets showed different trends. The futures price of soybean meal rebounded, while the spot price was relatively stable, with the spot discount slightly widening [18][23]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From October 27 to November 5, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed, with the number of soybean warehouse receipts increasing and the number of soybean meal warehouse receipts decreasing [20]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 show changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [31][32]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025/26 are presented, including data on planting rate, harvest rate, and growth indicators [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March - September 2025 show changes in planting area, yield, output, and other indicators [43]. - Imported Soybean Arrival Volume: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China from 2020 - 2025 shows monthly fluctuations, with a high - level decline in November 2025 and an overall year - on - year increase [46]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. 6. Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - View: The short - term outlook is neutral. Affected by US soybean trends, domestic demand, and inventory, it is expected to oscillate in the range of 3040 - 3100 [9]. - Analysis of Influencing Factors: The basis is negative, inventory is increasing, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main short - position is decreasing with capital inflow [9]. Soybeans - View: The short - term outlook is neutral. Affected by US soybean trends, import volume, and domestic production expectations, it is expected to fluctuate between 4080 - 4180 [11]. - Analysis of Influencing Factors: The basis is neutral, inventory is decreasing year - on - year but still at a relatively high level, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main short - position is increasing with capital inflow [11].