大越期货甲醇早报-20251106

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the context of a weakening fundamental outlook, domestic methanol is expected to continue its weak performance in the short - term. Inland, multiple olefin plants plan to undergo maintenance in November, traditional downstream acetic acid has low operating rates, and a large methanol - to - hydrogen plant in northern Shandong is under maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on demand. With high domestic methanol operating rates and low inventories at upstream methanol plants still focused on sales, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short - term. Considering the current low methanol prices and cautious short - selling by traders, the price decline is expected to be limited. In ports, under the pressure of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventories, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak decline this week. [5] - It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2090 - 2160. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamental situation of methanol 2601 is neutral. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. As of October 30, 2025, port inventories have slightly increased, and the overall available circulating supply in coastal areas has decreased, both being bearish factors. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average, also bearish. The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions. It is expected that methanol prices will oscillate this week, with MA2601 ranging from 2090 - 2160. [5] 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: Some plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have shut down; Iranian methanol operating rates have decreased, and port inventories are at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; northwest CTO plants are purchasing external methanol. [6] - Likely Negative Factors: Previously shut - down plants such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed operations; there is an expected concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE operating rates have significantly declined; coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is currently actively selling; some plants in production areas have accumulated inventories due to continuous poor sales. [7] 3. Fundamental Data - Price Data: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 694 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 249 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2192 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the futures closing price is 2141 yuan/ton. There have been various price changes in different regions and varieties. [8] - Inventory Data: As of October 30, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 1282,900 tons, a slight increase of 13,100 tons from the previous period. The overall available circulating supply of methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 5300 tons to 838,300 tons. [5] - Operating Rate Data: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. Operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also changed. [8] 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic Methanol Plants: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc., with different maintenance start and end dates and corresponding weekly maintenance losses. [54] - Overseas Methanol Plants: Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc. have different operating conditions, such as some plants are in the process of restarting, some are operating stably, and some are under maintenance. [55] - Olefin Plants: Some olefin plants in Northwest, East China, Central China, Shandong, Northeast, etc. have different operating conditions, including normal operation, maintenance, and planned production increases. [56]