大越期货PVC期货早报-20251106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4610 - 4666. The factors affecting the market include supply - demand dynamics, cost changes, and inventory levels. [6][8][9] - The bullish factors are supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high and slow - moving inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - Bullish factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. - Bearish factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - moving inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. - Main logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery. [12][13] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 329,250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 147,710 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in production scheduling. [6] 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream开工率 was 50.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Different downstream sectors had varying trends in开工率, but overall, the current demand may remain sluggish. [6] 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of calcium carbide - based production was - 763.08 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.50% month - on - month. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 544.5 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 2.00% month - on - month. The double - ton spread was 2,249.75 yuan/ton, with no change in profit month - on - month. All were below the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure. [8] 3.2.4 Basis On November 5, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,630 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 8 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral. [9] 3.2.5 Inventory Factory inventory was 337,968 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 252,368 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%, and ethylene - based factory inventory was 85,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. Social inventory was 544,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.82%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.89%. It is neutral. [9] 3.2.6 Market MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish. [9] 3.2.7 Main Position The main position is net short, and short positions increased. It is bearish. [9] 3.2.8 Expectation The cost of calcium carbide - based production is weakening, and the cost of ethylene - based production is strengthening, with the overall cost weakening. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. [9] 3.3 PVC Market Overview The report provides a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, production, and inventory data of different types of PVC products and related downstream sectors. [15][16] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures contracts, which helps to understand the market sentiment and price dynamics. [18][21][22] 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide - Based Raw Materials - Analyzes the price, cost - profit, and production status of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, etc., which are crucial for understanding the cost structure of calcium carbide - based PVC production. [27][30][32] 3.5.2 PVC Supply - Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, production volume, and maintenance of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC production, reflecting the supply - side situation of PVC. [40][41][43] 3.5.3 PVC Demand - Analyzes the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream开工率 of PVC, as well as the relationship with the real estate market and macro - economic indicators, which helps to understand the demand - side situation. [45][47][50] 3.5.4 Inventory - Analyzes the inventory levels of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory warehouses, ethylene - based factory warehouses, and social inventories, as well as the inventory days of production enterprises, which reflects the inventory status of the PVC market. [57][58] 3.5.5 Ethylene - Based - Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads, which are important for understanding the ethylene - based PVC market and international trade situation. [59][60] 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Presents the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import, which helps to understand the overall supply - demand situation of the market. [63]