Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated strongly, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The copper concentrate supply shortage has not improved, TC fees hover in the negative range, and the firm ore price provides solid cost support for copper prices. Due to many smelting plants under maintenance and tight supply of copper ore and blister copper, smelting capacity is limited. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, shows signs of decline, affecting smelting profits and weakening production enthusiasm. Domestic refined copper supply may gradually shrink. High copper prices affect downstream purchasing strategies, and downstream buyers are pressing prices and maintaining just - in - time demand. Overall consumption is expected to improve, and downstream demand may be released as copper prices decline. In general, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of shrinking supply and gradually improving demand, with positive industry expectations and orderly inventory reduction. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.29, up 0.0104 month - on - month, indicating a bullish sentiment, and implied volatility slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis and the red bars are expanding. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 86,320 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,759 dollars/ton, up 61.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 211,098 lots, down 5,926 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 13,834 lots, down 182 lots; LME copper inventory was 133,975 tons, up 75 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 116,140 tons, up 11,348 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants were 10,650 tons, down 275 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 43,893 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 85,995 yuan/ton, up 660 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 85,865 yuan/ton, up 435 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 52 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 34 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was - 325 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 38.37 dollars/ton, down 7.92 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 258.69 million tons, down 17.2 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 42.15 dollars/kiloton, up 0.55 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 76,160 yuan/metal ton, up 440 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 76,860 yuan/metal ton, up 440 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south was 1,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the processing fee for blister copper in the north was 900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 126.6 million tons, down 3.5 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 58,190 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 71,850 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 223.2 million tons, up 1 million tons. The cumulative value of investment in power grid infrastructure construction was 437.807 billion yuan, up 58.231 billion yuan. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 6,770.571 billion yuan, up 739.652 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,371,236,100 pieces, up 120,949 pieces [2]. Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 18.16%, down 5.5%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 19.42%, up 0.03%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month was 15.27%, down 0.0033. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.29, up 0.0104 [2]. Industry News - In October, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%, with a penetration rate of 58.7%. The ADP employment in the US increased by 42,000 in October, the largest increase since July 2025, higher than the market expectation of 28,000. The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in October was 52.4, the highest since February 2025. The US federal government shutdown has entered the 36th day, breaking the previous record. The Congressional Budget Office said it may reduce the Q4 economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points. If the deadlock continues until Thanksgiving week, about 14 billion dollars in economic losses will be irrecoverable. The State Council will continue to suspend the 24% additional tariff on US imports for one year, retaining the 10% tariff rate. Premier Li Qiang said China will focus on high - quality development and promote high - level opening - up [2].
沪铜产业日报-20251106
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-06 09:05