瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20251106

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Thursday, the I2601 contract rebounded slightly. Macroeconomically, the US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, the largest increase since July 2025. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrivals increased significantly. The domestic port inventory has increased for six consecutive weeks, and the hot metal production decreased, reducing the spot demand. Overall, steel mills maintain on - demand restocking, and the rebound of steel prices supports the iron ore price. Attention should be paid to the industrial data on Friday. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded at a low level. For operation, short - term trading is recommended with risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - I main contract closing price: 777.50 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan [2]. - I main contract open interest: 537,495 lots, down 7,164 lots [2]. - I 1 - 5 contract spread: 21.5 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan [2]. - I contract top 20 net open interest: - 20,239 lots, up 1,882 lots [2]. - I Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts: 1,000 lots, unchanged [2]. - Singapore iron ore main contract quote (as of 15:00): 103.9 dollars/ton, up 0.38 dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB fine ore: 848 yuan/dry ton, up 4 yuan [2]. - Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac fine ore: 845 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - Jingtang Port 56.5% Super Special fine ore: 766 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan [2]. - I main contract basis (Mac fine dry ton - main contract): 67 yuan, up 1 yuan [2]. - Iron ore 62% Platts Index (previous day): 104.90 dollars/ton, up 0.30 dollars [2]. - Jiangsu scrap steel/Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac fine ore: 3.18, down 0.05 [2]. - Import cost estimate: 855 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Global iron ore shipments (weekly): 3,213.80 million tons, down 174.50 million tons [2]. - China's 47 - port arrivals (weekly): 3,314.10 million tons, up 1,229.80 million tons [2]. - 47 - port iron ore inventory (weekly): 15,272.93 million tons, up 163.44 million tons [2]. - Sample steel mills' iron ore inventory (weekly): 8,849.86 million tons, down 229.33 million tons [2]. - Iron ore imports (monthly): 11,633.00 million tons, up 1,111.00 million tons [2]. - Iron ore available days (weekly): 23 days, up 4 days [2]. - 266 mines' daily output (weekly): 40.35 million tons, up 0.20 million tons [2]. - 266 mines' operating rate (weekly): 63.97%, up 0.47 percentage points [2]. - 266 mines' iron concentrate inventory (weekly): 47.75 million tons, up 0.30 million tons [2]. - BDI Index: 2,003.00, up 45.00 [2]. - Iron ore freight rate: Tubarao, Brazil - Qingdao: 23.17 dollars/ton, up 0.18 dollars [2]. - Iron ore freight rate: Western Australia - Qingdao: 10.085 dollars/ton, up 0.60 dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate (weekly): 81.73%, down 3.00 percentage points [2]. - 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate (weekly): 88.59%, down 1.33 percentage points [2]. - Domestic crude steel output (monthly): 7,349 million tons, down 388 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - Underlying historical 20 - day volatility (daily): 17.72%, down 0.61 percentage points [2]. - Underlying historical 40 - day volatility (daily): 16.12%, down 0.09 percentage points [2]. - At - the - money call option implied volatility (daily): 15.49%, down 1.04 percentage points [2]. - At - the - money put option implied volatility (daily): 15.31%, up 0.76 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, Mysteel's global iron ore shipments were 3,213.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 174.5 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,759.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 166.7 million tons. Australia's shipments were 1,895.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89.2 million tons, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 1,605.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60.6 million tons. Brazil's shipments were 864.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77.5 million tons [2]. - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills under the new caliber was 2,780.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 97.46 million tons. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 112.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.18 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 24.63, a week - on - week increase of 0.40 [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Attention Pay attention to the domestic iron ore port inventory, steel mills' blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate on Friday [2].